Week 3 Fantasy Forecast

Time for some Week 3 Fantasy outlooks. Let's see how the match ups look this week.

Like a Boss

Drew Brees
Have you seen the numbers this guy is putting up this year? He ripped up a very good Eagles defense last week, and should do something similarly destructive against the Bills. Until he gives you a reason not to, you start Drew Brees. 300 yards, 4 touchdowns sound reasonable?

Baltimore Ravens Defense
Much like Drew Brees, this group should be played any time you have the choice. Now they get to set their crosshairs on a very poor Browns offense, which may be without Jamal Lewis. Ripe for the pickin'!

Brandon Jacobs
I gotta give some love to the big man, who has gotten off to a slow start this year. The Bucs defense doesn't know what they're trying to be, so look for this to be the week the Giants get the running game on track. 120 yards, 2 TDs

Like a Bum

Chris Johnson
The kid can run, but he's up against a Jets defense that has been stifling to the point of not giving up an offensive touchdown in 2 games. They're disciplined, aggressive, and fast, so don't look for this to be CJ's best week. 75 yards, 0 TDs

JaMarcus Russell
I guess I'll explain it. This guy sucks. He's completed less than 40% of his throws on the year, and can't hit WRs short or intermediate. Now he has to throw against Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins in the Broncos secondary. If I have to tell you to sit this guy, I also have to ask why you drafted him in the first place 115 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Adrian Peterson
Controversy!!!! Yeah, I know, you should never sit AP, but that 49ers defense is really good, and the Peterson vs Willis battle should be sweet to watch. As amazing as Adrian Peterson is, he can be shut down by top flight defenders, and I think this will be an off week for him. 90 yards, 0 touchdowns.

Sleepers

Matt Forte
Forte has gotten off to a very slow start thus far, but has a favorable match up this week against the banged up Seahawks defense. Seattle is down 2 starting LBs, and you just feel like this kid is primed for a breakout game. 115 yards, 2 TDs, 6 catches, 55 yards

Beanie Wells
Any RB playing the Colts should be considered until they prove otherwise. Wells may not put up a ton of yards, both because the Cardinals barely run the ball, and from ball-ninja Tim Hightower, but I expect him to score on Indy. 85 yards, 2 TDs, 4 catches, 24 yards

Derrick Ward
The Giants were absolutely gashed last week by Dallas, and Tampa Bay has shown some real ability to run the ball. With standout Safety Kenny Phillips lost for the year, and Justin Tuck possibly out with a sore shoulder, there is vulnerability there that Ward absolutely knows how to take advantage of. 110 yards, 1 TD, 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

~Freeze

Week 3 Pick: Most Interesting Watch

There are a couple of games that interest me this week, but not a lot that really stood out. Panthers/Cowboys would be sweet if Jake Delhomme wasn't playing like Brett Favre circa 2005. Vikings/Niners (the only 2-0 team battle) would be great if I had a better feel for what San Fran is at this point. Titans/Jets might be alright, but Tennessee has been really weird this year, so there might not be much to see there. There's really only one game that jumps at me on the Week 3 schedule, and that is:

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals

Over/Under: 48 1/2
Line: Cardinals by 2 1/2

My Thoughts:
That's a very iffy line for the Cards, and if you consider that home field advantage usually nets you a 3 point edge, the Colts are really favored by a half point. Frankly, I'm surprised Arizona is favored at all. They looked awful in their first game, and has a nice rebound in week 2. Indy has been shaky so far, but Peyton Manning finds ways to win games no matter what.

The reason I pegged this game as the Most Interesting is that these teams are almost clones of each other. You have smart QBs who make timely, accurate throws. You have explosive receivers capable if big plays down the field. You have defenses with good (not great) corners and safeties, and very talented pass rushers. You have two teams that don't run the ball well, and aren't known for stopping the run. This is not a game that will be decided on the ground, but rather the fate of these teams resides in the hands of Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning. Whichever guy exploits the opponent's defense more effectively will win.

One thing really stands out about this game, and that's Larry Fitzgerald against the Colts' secondary. He torched Pittsburgh's excellent backfield in the Super Bowl, and the Colts' corners simply don't match up as well. He'll be double (or triple) teamed all day, so Anquan Boldin should find plenty of spots underneath, and Steve Breaston should be able to work effectively out of the slot. Ken Whisenhunt wants to run the ball, but Arizona sucks at it. Beanie Wells was the right pickup for them, but the O-line doesn't run-block well, they don't give him holes, and the Colts LBs are fast enough to close in on him in those tight spots.

The Colts, likewise, are not a run-first team. Donald Brown, like Wells above, was absolutely the right pick, but again, they don't have an elite run-blocking offensive line. Nor, for that matter, do they run behind a fullback to give their runners more room. And I just have no faith in Joseph Addai. Sorry dude. The Colts will come out slinging the ball, and I think it's fair to expect a big-time shootout between two explosive offenses. If you like big plays, highlight-reel catches, and great QB play, this game should be great to watch. Arizona is finally a pretty good team, with the best receiver corps in the game, but Kurt Warner does not outplay Peyton Manning this time.

Prediction:
Colts 31
Cardinals 27

I picked a lot of upsets this week (3 out of 4, actually), so I hope I can't be accused of playing it safe or frontrunning anymore. I actually feel pretty strongly about this week's picks, so I'm interested to see how my record holds up.

~Freeze

Week 3 Pick: Blowout

There is one team in the league for which I could pick a blowout every week. Those would have been a safe pick before the season started, and they have only exceeded offensive expectations. It's tempting to pick the Baltimore/Cleveland game because of the 13 point spread. However, I only see one certifiable blowout on this schedule, and it's:

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills

Over/Under: 28 1/2
Line: Saints by 6

My Thoughts:
First, how can the over/under on this game be 28 1/2, when the Saints average 46.5 points a game? That is ludicrous, and you have to assume the over on this. Now to the game...

The Bills' secondary has talent. McGee, McKelvin, and McWhitner(?) are all pretty good. Those guys can cover, and they tackle well in the open field. However, the Eagles' secondary is as good or better, and Drew Brees absolutely shredded them. His receivers, tight ends, and running backs can catch the ball at every level, and there aren't enough defensive backs on the Bills to cover them all effectively. The best thing Drew Brees does is find the open receiver and make the accurate throw to the right guy. There is too much potential for offensive explosion for a good, but slightly banged up, Bills defense to contend with.

Buffalo's offense is starting to come together. TO, while not getting a lot of balls thrown his way, is starting to have an impact, and the running game has been really solid. The Bills will challenge the Saints defense in a way they haven't seen yet this year. While Philly has very good skill players, they don't have TO, Lee Evans, and Fred Jackson healthy and working in sync. Plus, Trent Edwards is a way better QB than Kevin Kolb. I think the Bills can score on New Orleans, I just don't know if they can score enough.

I'm amazed by the line on this game. The Saints are favored by 6 on the road, which means they would be favored by 9 at home. The Redskins are favored by more against the Lions (and you know how I picked that game). There's no way this doesn't favor the Saints. I think we'll see a lot of points on the board in this game, but the Saints offense continues to amaze.

Prediction:
Saints 42
Bills 28

~Freeze

Week 3 Pick: Marquee Game

Not a lot of flash on the Week 3 schedule. Vikings/Niners is the only game between 2-0 teams, but it's too early to know what the 49ers really are. I'm impressed by them, but I'm far from sold on them. The only other game this week that really fits the Marquee bill (from what I saw) is:

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots

Over/Under: 47
Line: Patriots by 4 1/2

My Thoughts:
Atlanta was sort of the NFL's darling Cinderella story last year, and New England has been the marquee team of the decade. Both teams feature high-end quarterbacks, potentially explosive offenses, and defenses that currently qualify as question marks or works in progress. Tom Brady hasn't looked his usual self thus far, whereas Matt Ryan has been pretty sharp.

Atlanta's defense interests me, and Mike Peterson seems to have been an extremely good pickup. He has stepped up as the leader of the defense and improved the quality of play of the whole group. Their secondary doesn't seem particularly strong, and losing Peria Jerry for the season will definitely affect their run defense. Luckily for them, the Pats don't run much anyway. John Abraham can put some real pressure on Brady, and Peterson is just the kind of tough, heady linebacker that could cause a problem.

I don't know what to make of the Patriots this year. The offense has looked very sluggish, lacking any kind of rhythm. Brady looks uncomfortable in the pocket, and his throws have been jittery and off-target. They still haven't gotten the run game going, despite the addition of Fred Taylor, who has more gas in the tank than people (maybe even the Pats) think. The defense has been, and I hate to say it, pretty bad. Losing Harrison, Vrabel, Bruschi, and Seymour has affected them possibly more than they expected. Jerod Mayo's injury sucks even more talent off the field. This is a group that should be good, but has yet to get their act together.

This is a hard game to call. I can see Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez going crazy on the Patriots either old or inexperience linebackers. The Patriots offense, on the other hand, simply has to hit their stride at some point. They have too much talent to continue playing at this level. I can't be entirely sure this is the week it comes together for them, but I think the weak run D and not-as-good-as-the-Patriots-WRs secondary favor a good turnaround.

I see this as a high scoring affair, and the more potent offense will win. I'll go for the Pats on this one, and covering the spread.

Prediction:
Patriots 38
Falcons 31

~Freeze

Week 3 Pick: Upset

Upsets are always fun to pick, because they necessarily entail going out on a huge limb. This week, I'm going out on the biggest limb ever:

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions

Over/Under: 38 1/2
Line: Redskins by 6 1/2

My Thoughts:
Picking the Lions to upset? Really? Yes, really. Washington is a hot mess right now; the offense looks awful, and the very-talented defense has shown some real vulnerability. Detroit's offense does have weapons, between Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, and Brandon Pettigrew. It's not as though this group can't put up yards, and even points. The x-factor here is the Lions' defense. Their linebacking corps received a pretty substantial overhaul. The injury to Ernie Sims is scary, but Larry Foote and Julian Peterson bring a winning mentality and a lot of discipline and skill to the defense.

I believe that the Detroit Lions defense has the potential to be very okay. Louis Delmas holds down an adequate secondary, the LBs are solid, and the D-line is alright. Thankfully, it doesn't take the '85 Bears to stop the Redskins offense. Washington traditionally doesn't play well at Ford Field, and I think this Lions team could really sneak up on them.

Washington is favored by 6 1/2 points here, but since the Lions automatically are spotted 3 for playing at home (usual point spread logic), it's more like a 9 1/2 point spread. With the Redskins' dysfunctional offense likely to sputter in the home of a sneakily okay Lions team, Detroit should more than cover, and I'll call them to win outright.

Prediction
Lions 20
Redskins 14

My Record after Week 2
7-0, 6-1 against the spread
I think I've played my picks a little too safe so far, so this pick is a huge risk. Don't let me down, Lions!

~Freeze

Giants v Cowboys Recap

Aren't division games exciting?! It was Sunday Night Football, so anyone reading this watched the game. I won't waste your time or mine recapping actual events, so let's get into some analysis.

Highlights

Eli Manning
This off-season, GM Jerry Reese personally challenged Eli Manning to raise his game, as well as the game of his young, unproven receivers. I'd say that 25 of 38 for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns on a huge stage, facing epic crowd noise, and with no help from the run game earns the boy that huge contract. He hung in the pocket, made smart throws, showed great control and accuracy, and was as cool as they come in a big spot. Eli has turned into Mariano Rivera; there's no one else I'd rather have in the final moments with the game on the line. There may be no better closer in football right now.

Mario Manningham/Steve Smith
I can't just pick one, as both guys had 10 catches and a touchdown. Insane performance for two young guys against what is supposed to be a pretty good defense. Hixon will have a hard time finding his way back into a starting spot with the show these two put on. Like I noted with Manning, both guys delivered huge on a night when the run game sputtered. If the Giants can run effectively in the future, these guys will get open even easier, which is terrifying.

NYG Offensive Line
DeMarcus Ware is a terror. Anthony Spencer is an emerging force of a pass rusher. Jay Ratliff is a Pro Bowl nose tackle. Igor Olshansky is touted as being "strong like bull." The Giants O-line shut them down completely. This same group gave up 8 sacks in last year's battle, zero sacks this year. There were also no false starts in a raucous environment. Let's be careful with the "best o-line in the NFL" talk this year, but this group is extremely good. Eli had great protection on Sunday, and doesn't have near the success he had without these guys.

Dallas Cowboys Run Defense
The Giants have a great run-blocking offensive line, a monster of a bell-cow back, and a quick, strong, and very talented backup. The Cowboys clearly loaded the box to stop the run, and did so with aplomb. Holding the New York Giants to under 100 rushing yards is no easy task, and is thus no small accomplishment. However, the attention they paid to the run game left their DBs extremely vulnerable.

Kenny Phillips/Bruce Johnson
There has been a lot of fearful talk regarding the Giants' secondary in the last few weeks. Most people thought the injuries would expose glaring vulnerabilities in the young players being asked to carry the load. Apparently, they forgot to tell Phillips and Johnson that they're vulnerable. Phillips' INT off Jason Witten's foot was an amazing heads-up play; if he takes his eye off that ball, it falls incomplete. His second, he looked like a punt returner. Johnson just made a great reaction on a stupid Romo throw, and had the presence of mind to run to the end zone. Great, great night for the Miami defensive backfield.

Lowlights

NYG Run Defense
I'll allow that Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice are possibly the best 3-pronged running attack in the NFL. Nonetheless, shoddy tackling and lousy gap control have now been problems 2 weeks in a row. I don't have access to the coach's tape or gameplan, so I don't know if it was just overpursuit, mental/physical errors, or guys being out of position, but 251 ground yards is inexcusable. This needs fixing if the Giants expect to win big games in November and December.

Tony Romo
Do I need to explain this? On a huge stage, with a dramatic home field advantage, supported by a very good offensive line and dominating run game, and facing an injury-crippled defense, Tony Romo delivers an absolute bullshit performance (sorry for the language, but he deserved it). He completed 45% of his passes for only 127 yards, 1 TD, and 3 interceptions. All of those interceptions game on ridiculously ill-advised, poorly executed throws. Face it, Jerry Jones, your golden boy is NOT a big-game quarterback, and I can't see Dallas going anywhere important with this guy under center. The Giants were missing their starting and nickel CBs, a major piece of the DT rotation, JUSTIN FREAKING TUCK (for over half the game), and were just breaking in a new WLB while playing an undrafted rookie in the nickel corner spot, and Romo can't deliver. What a mess.

Dallas WRs
This piggy-backs on the Romo complaint, but this group needs to show up bigger in a big game. Again, big stage, home field advantage, great running, and banged up D, and the wide receivers combine for 4 catches and 49 yards. With a dime back and special teamer in coverage, they couldn't do more? Romo had incredible protection with all day to throw...wasn't anyone getting open? Where were these guys? Time will ultimately tell the whole story, but it sure looked like the Cowboys missed TO this time.

Flozell Adams
You bastard. Holding a guy when he badly beats you on an inside move is one thing, but tripping him and causing an injury is ridiculous. Tripping doesn't usually draw suspensions, but the injury result has to make the league take a closer look. Especially since he drew THE SAME PENALTY last week against the Bucs. What makes it completely unconscionable is his reaction to Tuck calling the move "bush league" :::
"What does that mean? I've never ever heard that term. It's not my fault. I don't know what happened with that. He said he hurt his shoulder. I'm like, 'Well, stay up.' That's all I know. He fell down. Stay up."
Stay up? Hard to stay up when you trip the guy, you moron! Please, Roger Goodell, do more than just fine this jerk.

Notes

I think I may have to take back my Lowlight on Santana Moss from last week, because I'm starting to think that maybe Corey Webster really is that good. Roy Williams was held to only one catch. Romo was checking down like crazy, and certainly not because he was under a ton of pressure. Receivers simply weren't getting open, and Webster is the best of that bunch. Like I said last week, it's great to see how the guy has bounced back from his benching 2 years ago.

The Palace in Dallas sure looks spectacular, but my first impression of the "Party Pass" section was "that looks like a miserable cluster-fudge riot." Apparently, Jerry Jones agreed, as they are reducing the access to the area from 30,000 to 10,000. How's that humble pie taste, Jerry?

Speaking of Jerry Jones' inspiring humility, how about the fact that he put a Dallas Star on top of that huge, stupid video board?! Does he need the International Space Station crew to know which stadium is his? What is wrong with this guy?

Also, NBC clearly showed him picking his nose. Take that!

I'm really looking forward to the Giants/Bucs game next week. We've played two very tough teams the first two weeks, and haven't looked particularly impressive. Now we have a chance to work out some of the kinks on a lesser opponent, and hopefully improve some before the serious challengers come around. I think the pass rush will look a lot better against Tampa Bay, as will the run game. Take the opportunity to get it figured out!

~Freeze

Friday Fantasy Forecast

I don't know when people pick their starters for their fantasy teams, as every league is different. That's also what makes picking players hard, as different leagues assign different values for different stats. But I'll do my best here.

Like a Boss

Adrian Peterson - Duh. He's the best pure runner in the league. He's playing Detroit, which while improved, isn't ready for this guy. I'm looking for him to have 160+ yards, and 2 or more TDs.

Baltimore Defense - Anyone worth their salt picked Baltimore anyway, but their matchup is interesting this week. San Diego's offensive line is banged up, so I'm expecting a few sacks, at least one INT, and at least one forced fumble.

Jason Witten - Witten is always a bad match for the Giants. There are question marks with their linebackers and safeties, and Jason Witten could pick up 7 catches, 90+ yards, and at least one TD.

Aaron Rodgers - Cincinnati's secondary is suspect (say that three times fast). Rodgers looked invincible in the preseason, struggled in the opener, and should rebound strongly to the tune of 300 yards and 3 TDs (with one INT).

Like a....Bum
Matt Hasselbeck - San Francisco's defense is playing superb ball under Mike Singletary. An unreliable run game in Seattle makes his job that much harder.

Steve Slaton - I would bench any RB going against the Titans defense. Slaton didn't get a lot of room to run last week, and Tennessee's defense minds there gaps better than almost anyone.

Chicago Defense - Losing Brian Urlacher cripples the effectiveness of this defense. The Steelers are looking to air it out, and should put up a lot of yards and points here.

Carson Palmer - Despite switching schemes to the 3-4, Green Bay still has a great secondary. Carson is still getting healthy, still getting to know Coles, and still doesn't have a good offensive line. Poor guy's in for a long day.

Sleepers
Ray Rice - San Diego's run defense looked iffy against the Raiders, and I see the Rutgers kid doing well this week. If you're in a league that rewards receptions by running backs, Rice could give you a lot.

Brian Westbrook - New Orleans' defense has gotten a lot of attention this summer, but Westbrook kills linebackers, and Vilma is the only legit one on the roster. No McNabb means greater emphasis on the run game, and lots of short passes and dump offs, so Westbrook figures to be a HUGE factor on Sunday.

Ronnie Brown - I don't trust Indy's run defense, despite all their efforts to get bigger on the line. Ronnie Brown could rack up 120 yards, maybe 2 TDs.

New York Jets Defense - The undertalented Bills gave Tom Brady all he could handle on Monday. Anyone think Rex Ryan's Jets are worse than the Bills? This game has real upset possibilities, and the defense would be where that comes to life.

Jay Cutler - I'm taking a risk on this one, but losing Troy Polamalu takes away the big play potential of Pittsburgh's defense. Cutler won't throw 4 interceptions again. The Bears will not win this game, but Jay Cutler will pitch a much better game this time around.

Flame away!

~Freeze

Week 2 Pick: Most Interesting Watch

I feel a need to explain how I quantify what the "most interesting watch" is. It will focus on a unique, worth-watching match-up, maybe including a couple of dark-horse or surprising teams, a game with serious division/conference implications, maybe a battle of good players on bad teams. I look at the schedule, and one game will hopefully jump out and make me go "Ooh, that could be interesting..." This week, there were two, but instead of picking Steelers/Bears, I chose:

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under: 39 1/2
Line: 49ers by 1 1/2

My Thoughts:
I'm interested in this game because it will probably give a good indication of who will win the NFC West down the road (get out of the way, Arizona). Long derided as the weakest division in football, the NFC West is shaping up to be pretty competitive this year. This game, in particular, just has me curious. Jim Mora is stepping up as the Seahawks new coach, and he's got TJ Houshmanzadeh and Aaron Curry to help him out. On the other sideline is now-full-time coach (the legendary) Mike Singletary, who has his team playing as hard and ferocious as any team in the league. I can realistically see both of these teams pushing last year's NFC Champion Cardinals to at least third place in the division, and one of these two hits the playoffs.

I'm interested to see what San Fran's offense looks like this week, after a somewhat poor showing in week one. Shaun Hill probably shouldn't start for anyone, much less a playoff contender. However, Frank Gore and Glenn Coffee can bring the pain on the ground, and Vernon Davis is a good a pass-catching tight end as there is, so he has some help. The defense, though, is what this team is all about (never thought I'd say that about the 49ers). Patrick Willis has been one of the best in the business since he got drafted, and with Urlacher out, has to be the best MLB in the NFC. He leads a very tough, talented defense that has taken on its coach's personality.

Seattle, on the other hand, is a good team trying to bounce back off a miserable year. Hasselbeck to Housh hasn't shown the promised fireworks yet, but that is going to be a solid hookup. If people stay healthy, the Seahawks defense should be plenty good to give the offense a chance, and they have a really good group of linebackers. Two things worry me about the 'Hawks, though. One, can they run the ball effectively enough? Willis and company are more than capable of controlling Julius Jones and Edgerrin James. What can Seattle do to establish themselves on the ground? And two: can they stop the run? Arizona did, but I'd rank their defensive line slightly ahead of Seattle's. They've got their work cut out for them this game, as Mike Singletary will want to run right at them all game, and limit exposure to Shaun Hill.

I have a feeling that whichever team wins this game rides that momentum to a division crown. It's almost refreshing to welcome back relevant football to the NFC West. This is an incredibly difficult game to pick, and my gut says the Seahawks pull this one out, but my heart is telling me to run with San Fran. Arizona isn't as bad as the Niners made them look last week, and I think this will be a sloppy game with a low score and a lot of turnovers, but San Francisco's defense leads the way to a close win. Give me the under, laying points and the 49ers.

Prediction:
San Fransisco 20
Seahawks 14

Tough game to call, but should be an interesting one to follow. Last week, being a fool, I only picked 3 games.
My Record:
3-0 straight up
2-1 against the spread

Week 2 Pick: Upset Special

I was tempted by a lot of games for this category, like going Giants over the Cowboys, Carolina over Atlanta, or Arizona over Jacksonville. However, one stood out to me as the most probably upset, and that is:

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under: 38
Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2

My Thoughts:
You're probably saying to yourself, "3.5 isn't much of a line to pick against and call it an upset." And you're not (completely) wrong. However, picking a Raiders game always counts as an upset, as I doubt they'll be favored in (m)any games this year. But I saw what that Oakland defense did to a very good Chargers offense on Monday. Does anybody really think the Chiefs are better than the Chargers? They do in Vegas, judging by that line, but I have to disagree.

All of a sudden, the Raiders are playing energetic, physical, disciplined defense, and they can thank Greg Ellis and Richard Seymour for that. Their offense looked pretty much awful in week one, though they did run pretty effectively. Kansas City's spread-style offense will work (oddly enough) better against the Ravens than the Raiders for one reason only: Nnamdi Asomugha. Say goodbye to Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs fans. You won't hear his name all game. Behind him, who is KC's receiving threat? Tony Gonzalez? Oops, nope, he's in Atlanta now. Larry Johnson will struggle to run against a good D-line, and a very decent LB group. Oakland will challenge Kansas City to throw, and force them to throw to someone other than Dwayne Bowe.

I don't see a lot of points going up in this game. The Raiders will likely run a lot, and possibly score off a deep play-action pass once or twice. However, I think their defense is good enough to hold Kansas City down for a pretty close, low-scoring victory. I'll go with the Under here, and pick the Raiders to upset the Chiefs.

Prediction:
Raiders 17
Chiefs 14

One more pick for this week, that being the Most Interesting Game. Hard to categorize, so I hope you agree with the game, if not the pick.

~Freeze

Week 2 Pick: Marquee Game

My choice of Marquee Game for week 2 could have gone in a few directions. If Donovan McNabb was healthy, I would have definitely gone with Eagles/Saints. Jets/Patriots has promise, also. Giants/Cowboys? As a Giants fan, it's too hard for me to pick division games; they're horribly unpredictable. But I think I whittled it down to what is actually the Marquee Game of the week, and that of course is:

Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers

Over/Under: 40 1/2
Line: Chargers by 3 1/2

My Thoughts:
This game is full of good matchups to watch. Rookie offensive tackle Michael Oher (read the book) against Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, Larry English, and all of San Diego's good pass rushers. Antonio Gates versus the Ravens talented, ball-hawking linebackers and safeties. Haloti Ngata up against a banged-up Chargers offensive line. Joe Flacco vs Philip Rivers; two young QBs who both like to throw deep. Both teams will be trying to establish the run with some very good backs. Both teams have quarterbacks who are representatives of the new generation of great NFL passers. Both have very talented defenses looking to rebound from unimpressive week one debuts. Oh yeah...this should be a good one to watch.

This shapes up to be a great game for any football fan. There will be huge hits, great defense, explosive offensive plays, and big-name players all over the field. Two AFC heavy-weights trying to establish themselves as elite teams. If you don't have DirecTV and the NFL Sunday Ticket, pray one of the networks carries this one nationally.

I really believe in the Ravens this year, and I think (as I said in an earlier post) that the Chargers will again suffer a somewhat slow start. Baltimore just has very good players at every spot on their roster. Sure, the WR group isn't real deep, but Todd Heap and Ray Rice can make catches if Derrick Mason can't. This will probably be a very close game, but I think Baltimore will run the ball more effectively, play smarter defense, and come out of this one with a hard-earned victory. I can see this one maybe hitting over the O/U, but I say take the points and the Ravens.

Prediction:
Ravens 24
Chargers 21

Yeah, I picked an upset here, but this isn't my pick for Upset Game. That comes later.

~Freeze

Week 2 Pick: Blowout

It's Thursday, which means it's time for me to make my picks for the coming week. Now, I'll be picking four games each week, each from a different category: Blowout, Upset, Marquee (biggest matchup/implications), and Most Interesting (which will be explained in the pick). Up first this week is my Blowout Pick for NFL Week 2.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Over/Under: 46 1/2
Line: Vikings by 10 1/2

My Thoughts:
Listen, the Lions made the right moves this off-season. I like what they did on defense, overhauling the LB corps, drafting Delmas at the top of Round 2. The offense is a work in progress, and has some pieces that should make them pretty good eventually. But right now, week 2, 2009, they aren't ready for this match-up. The Vikings, with or without Brett Favre, are a team built to win big. They feature the best pure runner in the game, a powerful offensive line, and a stifling defense. Minnesota's run D will keep Kevin Smith down, forcing Matthew Stafford to throw more than Detroit wants him to.

Adrian Peterson is going to run wild, much like he did against the Browns. The Lions defense, despite worthwhile veteran additions Larry Foote and Julian Peterson, can't handle this guy. Detroit's secondary is weak enough for Brett Favre to open up more than he did last week, as he's well acquainted with their inadequacies.

I think the Lions can score on Minnesota's defense, but not a lot. Peterson, Harvin, Favre and company are simply too much for an overmatched Lions defense. I'll take the over on this one, because I expect the Vikings to put up good points, with the Lions putting up a slight fight, but getting whupped in the end. Lay the points on Minny, folks.

Prediction:
I'm going with the Vikings in a big, 2 touchdown-plus win over the Lions at Ford Field.
Vikings 34
Lions 17

Wednesday Feature: You Know You're --- If...

Not that I care for Jeff Foxworthy's redneck routines, but there are some glaring stereotypes in the NFL, both for teams, players, and positions. I'll be devoting Wednesdays to a little league-inspired levity, as we all know sports fans (football specifically) can take things a little too seriously. Without further ado...

"You know you're the Oakland Raiders if..."
...Having a game tied at 10-10 through over three quarters qualifies as "dominance."

"You know you're the Detroit Lions if..."
...Scoring 27 points (with a rookie QB) still nets you a blowout loss.

"You know you're an NFL referee if..."
...You feel justified in flagging Vince Wilfork for a legal, safe hit on a QB.

"You know you're Laron Landry if..."
...You're useless both against the run and in coverage against the Giants (yes, I'm a homer, but we own that guy).

"You know you're Adrian Peterson if..."
...You look unstoppable, even with defenders hanging all over you.

"You know you're the Buffalo Bills if..."
...Your game or season comes down to one play that you don't make. A day late and a dollar short? More like a play late and a fumble short.

~Freeze