Friday, September 25, 2009

Week 3 Pick: Blowout

There is one team in the league for which I could pick a blowout every week. Those would have been a safe pick before the season started, and they have only exceeded offensive expectations. It's tempting to pick the Baltimore/Cleveland game because of the 13 point spread. However, I only see one certifiable blowout on this schedule, and it's:

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills

Over/Under: 28 1/2
Line: Saints by 6

My Thoughts:
First, how can the over/under on this game be 28 1/2, when the Saints average 46.5 points a game? That is ludicrous, and you have to assume the over on this. Now to the game...

The Bills' secondary has talent. McGee, McKelvin, and McWhitner(?) are all pretty good. Those guys can cover, and they tackle well in the open field. However, the Eagles' secondary is as good or better, and Drew Brees absolutely shredded them. His receivers, tight ends, and running backs can catch the ball at every level, and there aren't enough defensive backs on the Bills to cover them all effectively. The best thing Drew Brees does is find the open receiver and make the accurate throw to the right guy. There is too much potential for offensive explosion for a good, but slightly banged up, Bills defense to contend with.

Buffalo's offense is starting to come together. TO, while not getting a lot of balls thrown his way, is starting to have an impact, and the running game has been really solid. The Bills will challenge the Saints defense in a way they haven't seen yet this year. While Philly has very good skill players, they don't have TO, Lee Evans, and Fred Jackson healthy and working in sync. Plus, Trent Edwards is a way better QB than Kevin Kolb. I think the Bills can score on New Orleans, I just don't know if they can score enough.

I'm amazed by the line on this game. The Saints are favored by 6 on the road, which means they would be favored by 9 at home. The Redskins are favored by more against the Lions (and you know how I picked that game). There's no way this doesn't favor the Saints. I think we'll see a lot of points on the board in this game, but the Saints offense continues to amaze.

Saints 42
Bills 28


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