Thursday, September 24, 2009

Week 3 Pick: Upset

Upsets are always fun to pick, because they necessarily entail going out on a huge limb. This week, I'm going out on the biggest limb ever:

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions

Over/Under: 38 1/2
Line: Redskins by 6 1/2

My Thoughts:
Picking the Lions to upset? Really? Yes, really. Washington is a hot mess right now; the offense looks awful, and the very-talented defense has shown some real vulnerability. Detroit's offense does have weapons, between Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, and Brandon Pettigrew. It's not as though this group can't put up yards, and even points. The x-factor here is the Lions' defense. Their linebacking corps received a pretty substantial overhaul. The injury to Ernie Sims is scary, but Larry Foote and Julian Peterson bring a winning mentality and a lot of discipline and skill to the defense.

I believe that the Detroit Lions defense has the potential to be very okay. Louis Delmas holds down an adequate secondary, the LBs are solid, and the D-line is alright. Thankfully, it doesn't take the '85 Bears to stop the Redskins offense. Washington traditionally doesn't play well at Ford Field, and I think this Lions team could really sneak up on them.

Washington is favored by 6 1/2 points here, but since the Lions automatically are spotted 3 for playing at home (usual point spread logic), it's more like a 9 1/2 point spread. With the Redskins' dysfunctional offense likely to sputter in the home of a sneakily okay Lions team, Detroit should more than cover, and I'll call them to win outright.

Lions 20
Redskins 14

My Record after Week 2
7-0, 6-1 against the spread
I think I've played my picks a little too safe so far, so this pick is a huge risk. Don't let me down, Lions!


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