A Few Quick Thoughts

I watched the first quarter of last night's Giants game with an Eagles fan, and was appalled to hear "I'd get rid of McNabb first chance I got." Eagles fans are incredible. They have a QB who takes them to 5 NFC Championship Games in the last 10 years, and they hate the guy. He's a great leader with a big arm who finally has the supporting cast he deserves. Philly will always be a defensive team, but how can you hate on Donovan McNabb?

As a Giants fan, of course I hate him. He's killed the Giants for years, and now has 4 in a row against us. But that's exactly why Philly fans should support him. Donovan deserves better, as much as I hate to admit it. And to make matters worse, the same fan was calling for more snaps for Mike Vick. Vick?! Really?! Fine, Eagles fans, Donovan McNabb could play QB for the Giants any day. I can't speak for all of us, but I think we'd love to have a QB like that.

Not that Eli had a bad game last night. He threw for a career high in yards, but his 2 fumbles didn't help us a whole lot. Still, Eli led an offense that put 38 points on the board and still didn't win the game. He accounted for 3 of our touchdowns. I can't pin this one on him, as quick as some will be to do so. This was yet another defensive meltdown.

And my final observations: Kevin Gilbride thinks he's the offensive coordinator of the Eagles. This has been picking at me for a long time, and I finally put my finger on it last night. Gilbride thinks he's running the Philadelphia offense: a pass-first (and second and third), run almost never, rely on the big play offense. See, if he were coaching for the Giants, we would be a run-first, smart pass calls, clock control offense that trusts the defense to do well. Granted, the defense hasn't held up their end of that bargain in '09, but they haven't spent a lot of time on the bench either. Every Giants drive is either a quick punt or a quick touchdown. We're throwing a gassed defense out there every fourth quarter...no wonder we can't hold a lead.

I'm in no position to say that the Philadelphia offensive system doesn't work; just look at what the Eagles have done the last, oh, 8 years. The difference is that the Giants don't have a rocket-armed QB who gets the ball to blazing fast WRs. Our receivers are small and quick, not straight-away fast. They're better on short routes and making yards after the ball is already in their hands. Plus, we don't have small, fast, pass-catching running backs to run the screen game the way the Eagles do. We have a 6'4" 265-pound back who is being used incorrectly. He runs best up the middle, behind an offensive line blocking forward, not sideways. Gilbride is running the wrong offense with the wrong personnel.

That, plus an overmatched defensive coordinator who makes no second half adjustments and is so afraid of the big play (which they give up anyway) that he almost never calls a blitz, is why we can't beat Philadelphia. We were outcoached last night, straight up.

~Freeze

Week 14 Picks

Ever notice how everything just goes nuts around the holidays. Yeah...sorry about that. Anyway, I'm back now with the picks for Week 14 (already?!).

Upset Special
Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Washington by 1
What to Watch For:
Now, you may not think a 1 point underdog really counts as an upset, but the Raiders are the home team here, remember. Frankly, I just don't think the Redskins are a mature enough team to come off their best, most emotional game of the year and show up against a lousy Raiders team. The Raiders, on the other hand, are riding high off a big win and look like an actual NFL team with Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback. I think the Raiders will surprise the 'Skins here and take this game outright.
Prediction:
Raiders 23
Redskins 17

Blowout
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Packers by 3
What to Watch For:
Listen Bears, putting up 17 points on the Rams at home last week proves nothing. This team is a mess, and the Packers, coming off a sloppy dismantling of the Ravens last week, are starting to get it together. These are two teams moving in completely opposite directions. And to make it worse for Chicago, Devin Hester is hurt and might miss this game. Give me the Packers laying three, and winning by a lot more.
Prediction:
Packers 31
Bears 20

Most Interesting Game
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings by 6 1/2
What to Watch For:
I want to see Brett Favre play in December. I'm not even worried about him playing in cold, bad weather, as he's in the Dome this week. I just want to see how his 40 year old arm is holding up after 12 games of football. Favre finally looked mortal last week, and it will be interesting to see how this talented Vikings team rebounds off an embarrassing loss. As for the Bengals, I'm curious how their new-look defense will hold up against the Minnesota offensive juggernaut. They can run, pass, or kill you with trick plays, and this is the biggest test Cincy has faced all year. I'm also curious to find out what the Bengals offense can muster against what has to be an angry Vikings defensive front. I think Minnesota will come out pissed off, throw some haymakers, and look to knock the Bengals out early. Cincinnati is a good team, but they're not ready for an angry Jared Allen or Adrian Peterson.
Prediction:
Vikings 27
Bengals 20

Marquee Game
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys by 3
What to Watch For:
Coming off a humiliating loss and now playing a San Diego team that is red hot, how are the Cowboys favored in this one, even at home? I was tempted to pick this one as my Blowout, but the implications are too big. The Cowboys' playoff future is on the line here. They need this game to stay ahead of whoever wins Giants/Eagles later that night. For the Chargers, they need to keep their momentum up, as the Broncos are starting to gain ground. Throw in the fact that the Chargers have historically been dominant in December and the Cowboys...well...haven't, and this one could get crazy. The Chargers look to keep rolling, and the Cowboys will be trying to prove to everyone that they don't choke in big games in December. So of course, they will.
Prediction:
Chargers 24
Cowboys 21

Record:
Last Week: 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the spread
Overall: 35-16 straight up, 28-23 against the spread

~Freeze

What's Wrong With the Giants Part 1

Alright, I've been planning this little write-up for about two weeks. And no, an ugly win over the Falcons didn't make me reconsider writing it. The Giants are currently claiming to require some self-scouting after losing 5 of their last 6. Well Coach Coughlin, here you go, problems listed in order of importance with coaching last:

PROBLEM AREAS

Offensive Line
While providing pretty okay pass protection (19 sacks, 2 on David "Beat Up Old" Carr), this group has been simply horrendous in their run blocking this year. Part of it is the play calling (more on that later), but this group led the way for the NFL's best-ranked rushing attack last year, and is simply under-performing in 09. Brandon Jacobs has proven to be an effective back to the tune of two 1,000 yard seasons in a row. But this year, Jacobs is dodging a defender as soon as he's got the ball. Defenses are getting insane penetration in the running game, giving even the shiftier Ahmad Bradshaw nowhere to go. And while stretch plays aren't what Jacobs does best, the front 5 has blocked them well in the past. The sorry run game this year is a result of 5 individuals not playing well as a group. They need to take more pride in their blocking, man up, and push people off the ball. Simple as that. Regardless of how they end this year, though, I'm calling for a pretty major off-season shake-up (to be outlined in Part 2).

Middle Linebacker
I love Antonio Pierce as much as anybody, but let's be honest for a moment: the guy has been a below average linebacker since last year. Throw in his new season-ending neck injury, his NFL-old 32 years of age, and his steadily declining effectiveness, and his time is running out in NY. Even Pierce's trademark at-the-line brilliance has been missing this year, as his adjustments (if he's even made them) have proven ineffective. If Chase Blackburn was the answer, he'd have earned any starting job a long time ago. Blackburn is a slower, less savvy Pierce. The way the NFL is played today, we need an athlete in there. It's time for the coaches to throw Johnathan Goff in there for a few games and see if he's their guy for the future. If not, I'll kindly refer the coaching staff to Part 2 of this little article.

Defensive Tackle
The Giants spent an estimated $345 hojillian on defensive tackles in Free Agency with 1 total sack to show for it. This group, more than any on the defense, has been simply awful this year. I can't blame Chris Canty just yet, as he's still working back from an injury while learning a new position (and dropping into coverage? WTF?). But Rocky Bernard has been a complete waste of money. He's getting no push up the middle and giving nothing to run support. If he's not being blown off the ball, he's just not in the play. Last year's starters Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins have been lousy as well, with 1 sack between them as well. Cofield I can live with, as he's young with some upside and has only ever been a body against the run, but Robbins has shown signs of being a good pass rushing DT. Not anymore, after major knee surgery at 32. Robbins' contract is up after this year, and I expect he will be gone after this performance. Cofield is in the last year of his deal as well, and the coaches will have to make a tough decision on him. I don't see the Giants cutting Bernard after the first year of his new deal, but he could be in trouble if he doesn't step up.

Free Safety
If C.C. Brown and Aaron Rouse are supposed to be the answer, I don't really want to know the question. Brown has been beyond useless, and Rouse is finally starting to get this "playing football" thing down. Michael Johnson has been decent at Strong Safety, and he's not asked to do a ton of covering since he spends most of his time in the box against the run. The Giants were counting on Kenny Phillips to turn into a star, and he appeared to be on his way before a season ending injury. That injury also (rightly) raised questions about his long term health and future, so the Giants need to start looking ahead now. What if his knee never fully recovers and he can't get back to the level he started this year at? What if his arthritic knee is career ending? They need a plan that doesn't involve Brown or Rouse. I like Rouse as a third safety for dime packages against three+ receiver sets, but that's about it. We need a safety who is anything other than a liability in deep coverage, and who doesn't whiff on easy tackles. I don't need huge numbers in interceptions. I'll settle for a couple of well-defensed balls batted away and some timely tackling.

Tight End
Listen, Kevin Boss is awesome, even if Kevin Gilbride and the other Giants coaches don't realize it. But possibly the biggest mistake the Giants made this off-season was trading away blocking TE Michael Matthews and keeping not-even-good-at-that pass-catching TE Darcy Johnson. With Matthews in on running downs, it was like having an extra offensive lineman who could catch a pass in a pinch. With Johnson in on 2 TE sets, we have no choice but to run behind Boss who, in only his third season, is still learning the intricacies of NFL blocking. If we need a TE to catch a ball, we have Boss or rookie Travis Beckum. I see a huge need for a big bodied tight end to squat on the line and block someone in the run game. That guy is not on this roster, and that needs fixing.

Punter
How can you not love Jeff Feagles? The guy is 43 and still playing in the NFL. Unfortunately, he's no longer playing at a high level in the NFL. His directional style of punting has been a great asset to the Giants in recent years, but Feagles seems to have lost his uncanny accuracy this year, shanking tons of kicks out of bounds early for some abysmally short punts, providing our already porous defense a shorter field to defend. He's never had a big leg, and here in the twilight of his career, he has finally become a liability. We're witnessing the end of one of the great, and entirely unnoticed and unheralded, careers, and Feagles and Ray Guy should be the only two punters ever allowed in the Hall of Fame. The Giants will look for a new young punter in the offseason, and if they stay true to form, he'll be in the back end of the draft.

Defensive Coordinator
I think at this point in the season, any blue-blooded Giants fan realizes that Bill Sheridan stinks. He's calling the same passive soft-zones that got Tim Lewis fired 3 or 4 years ago. He is hesitant to call blitzes, is never seen rallying or even coaching up his players on the sideline. Sheridan coaches scared, not blitzing for fear of giving up big plays, and not trusting his corners to cover man on man. That's not Giants football. Maybe he was an awesome LB coach, and he must have made a great overture to Tom Coughlin to get the coordinator job, but he's done. As loyal as Coughlin is to his staff, there will be too much public outcry for Sheridan to keep his job barring a dramatic turnaround. He either needs to dial up the aggression in his play-calling, put his stars in position to excel, and turn this miserable defense around, or he'll be looking for a job in January.

Offensive Coordinator
I've been against Kevin Gilbride since before he even got the coordinator job. I always felt the blame for Eli Manning's apparent lack of progression during his first 3 years fell right on the head of the quarterback coach (Gilbride), and was appalled at his promotion. Some people were fooled by the Super Bowl win and last year's 12-4 record under this clown, but this year we see his true colors. He has never been a big believer in the run game; just ask Tiki Barber - in his last season (Gilbride's first as OC), he repeatedly criticized the coaches for giving up on the run too quickly. This year, we've seen him rear his ugly head again, never even attempting to commit to the run. He doesn't even call for play-action anymore. The guy is obsessed with deep passes and stretched out run plays. When you have quicker-than-fast receivers and a huge RB, that's not the game plan for success. He needs to run downhill up the middle and call passes that allow his receivers to get yards after the catch. He has no idea how to run an offense for this personnel, and he also has to go after this year.

I've been on the coaches for a while, but not Tom Coughlin. And truth be told, I won't get on him. That dude is a winner; he made 2 AFC Championship games in Jacksonville, and won a Super Bowl in New York. He's got some work to do this off season, and needs to rebuild his staff to save his job. The Giants will probably go 8-8 this year; not bad enough to fire Coughlin, but bad enough to can him next year if they don't improve. Suggestions are on their way, Tom.

~Freeze

Feature: Big Freeze Movie Club

We're going to take a short reprieve from the "If They Played..." feature to take an opportunity for some cinema talk.

Last Friday saw the release of a movie called "The Blind Side," based on a book of the same name which was written by Michael Lewis who has written a number of sports-themed books. It stars Sandra Bullock and Tim McGraw and tells the story of Michael Oher, currently a starting offensive tackle for the Baltimore Ravens.

*SPOILER ALERT*
If you haven't seen the movie, or don't already know the story, feel free to skip until after the /SPOILER ALERT tag.

As a synopsis, Michael Oher was born to a drug-addicted mother and grew up in the project of Memphis, TN without any kind of father. He was separated from his mother by order of the state as a child, and bounced from foster home to foster home. He was never forced to go to school, so he seldom did. Given grades just good enough to get rid of him, Oher reached high-school-age barely able to read.

In the film, we meet Michael Oher in the back of "Big Tony's" car on his way to a Christian private school. "Big Mike" stayed on Tony's couch from time to time, so he was brought with Tony's son to seek admission to the school for a proper education. Astounded by his athletic ability, the school's coach pleads Michael's case to the admissions department, and they admit him to the school out of Christian charity.

The movie calls the school Wingate Academy, but the actual name is Briarcrest, which is what I'll call it (because I'll slip up and call it that anyway). At Briarcrest, Michael is thought to have no intelligence at all, but his teachers quickly discover that he knows the material, he simply has no idea how to learn and respond in a real classroom. They give him his tests orally while working on his reading, slowly raising his GPA to something that doesn't begin with a zero.

Though he is now getting an education, Michael is still homeless. While watching a volleyball match in the gym to keep warm, Michael catches the attention of local fast food tycoon Sean Tuohy. Sean's wife, Leigh Anne, convinces "Big Mike" to spend a few nights in their home, and quickly becomes very attached to him. Big Mike isn't so forthcoming, as they know very little about him. Leigh Anne is able to discover the troubled, gang-controlled neighborhood where Michael grew up while trying to clothe him.

Eventually, Michael Oher's grades improve enough so that he can begin participating in sports, most notably football. Initially pegged as a defensive lineman, the coaches realized that Michael Oher was not a mean, angry kid from the projects, but something of a gentle giant with no desire to hit or hurt anyone. Understanding his protective instincts, they find him a natural fit at left tackle where he can protect his quarterback's blind side. An athletic pass protector, Oher is a monstrous run blocker which is highlighted in a scene in which he blocks a mouthy defender off the field and attempts to put him back on the team bus. It was this instinct and talent that caught the eye of recruiting guru Tom Lemming and, by extension, most major SEC college coaches.

A recruiting frenzy ensues over a backdrop of Michael fast becoming a part of the Tuohy family and forming a strong bond with their youngest child, SJ (Sean Jr). The highlight of that relationship comes after Michael has gotten his drivers license and takes SJ for a drive. A utility truck backs into them as Michael is driving, causing a bad accident. SJ is sitting in the front seat, and as the air bag deploys at deadly speed, Michael throws a massive arm in front of it, shielding SJ from the potentially sever injuries that could have resulted.

After hearing increasingly grand overtures from some major college coaches, Oher has narrowed his choices down to Ole Miss, which his adopted family attended, and arch-rival Tennessee. When he chooses Ole Miss, an NCAA investigator rumbles into town to determine whether or not the Tuohy's sought legal guardianship over Michael just to draw him to their alma mater. Distressed at the suggestion, Michael runs back to his old neighborhood. When the slum lord in charge begins making lewd comments about Michael's mother and sister, his protective instincts kick in and he roughs up the whole gang. When Leigh Anne finds him the next morning, they have a big heart-to-heart and Michael goes back to talk to the NCAA investigator. He tells her that he wasn't forced to go to Ole Miss, but that he wants to go because it's the family school.

The movie ends with Michael going to Ole Miss, and the family saying their goodbyes. It then follows with some additional biographical snippets, such as Oher's status as an All-American left tackle at Mississippi. It closes with actual footage from the 2009 NFL draft, where Oher was drafted 23rd overall by the Baltimore Ravens.
/*SPOILER ALERT*

Despite the football premise, "The Blind Side" actually draws an audience that is 60% female, and 70% over 25. Guys looking for a big time football movie won't find one, though there is some pretty entertaining game footage. Though somewhat brief, the football action is generally well-done and fun to watch. The film also opens with a sort of lesson on the left tackle position and its rise to prominence resulting from Lawrence Taylor's career-ending hit on Joe Theismann. Rabid football fans need no such primer, but it does help make the film significantly more accessible to the non-fan crowd.

I'll come short of calling "The Blind Side" a chick flick, and say it's probably a very good date movie. The sentimental story line of Leigh Anne's attachment to Michael, and the generally touching family dynamic, makes it very appealing to a female audience. Guys can comfortably settle in to the football action and occasionally very funny Coach Cotton. The recruiting montage is also a treat for sports fans as the college coaches are played by themselves, most notably Nick Saban, Phil Fullmer, and Lou Holtz. This is a rare movie where there actually is a little something for everyone.

If all you're looking for is a lot of football on a big screen, you probably won't be real into "The Blind Side." But if you're into more of a human drama, an engaging story of the power of human potential and compassion, it's a fantastic film that is already generating Oscar buzz for Sandra Bullock. I highly recommend it, as it is an inspiring true story that keeps very close to the book.

~Freeze

Week 12 Picks

Gotta do the picks kinda early this week, as we have 3 games this Thursday. Thanksgiving week is the greatest every year, as it sports the 3 F's of life all on one day: family, food, and football. I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday (except the Eagles and Cowboys).

Upset Special
Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys by 13 1/2
What to Watch For:
I'm going with the Raiders again, hoping another lackluster franchise comes through for me big time. It's not that I think the Raiders will actually win this game, but 13 1/2 points is way too big a spread. Think about it: the Cowboys have only scored 14 points in the last two weeks combined. That Raider defense is actually pretty good, and with Bruce Gradkowski at QB, the offense has played a lot better. Throw in the fact that the Raiders are much healthier than the very banged-up Cowboys, and we got us a game here! I, sadly, think the Cowboys take this one, but the Raiders will definitely keep it closer than 13.
Prediction:
Cowboys 17
Raiders 10

Blowout
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings by 10 1/2
What to Watch For:
Adrian Peterson averages 138.5 yards a game against the Bears, and this year they're without Brian Urlacher. There, that was an easy preview. He also averages 2.0 touchdowns against them. Jay Cutler has this weird compulsion to throw interceptions, and Jared Allen will scare him into 2 more this game. The Vikings are absolutely rolling, the Bears are disintegrating, and this one will be over by halftime.
Prediction:
Vikings 31
Bears 14

Most Interesting Game
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals by 14
What to Watch For:
Yeah, I'm picking the Browns again, and they really gave us a heck of a game last week! Really, though, I'm interested to see how the Bengals bounce back after a miserable loss to the Raiders last week. If they're going to be an elite team, which at 7-3 they could be, they need to act like one and beat up on bad teams. Dropping back to back layups would be inexcusable. Expect Carson Palmer and company to really put the stink on the Browns. I'm also curious to see if the juggernaut of an offense the Browns fielded against the Lions comes back for an encore. Against a Mike Zimmer defense, I sorta doubt it.
Prediction:
Bengals 30
Browns 13

Marquee Game
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints by 1 1/2
What to Watch For:
Well, a 1 1/2 point spread isn't much of a home field advantage, but I'm honestly surprised the Saints are even favored in this game. A Bucs blowout notwithstanding, they've been playing very sloppily lately and seem to be at their most vulnerable. The Patriots, on the other hand, are fresh off a dominating performance against the overmatched Jets and seem to be playing their best at the moment. This should be a great game to watch, with a ton of points. Pats/Saints looks ready to be a classic shootout between two of the best QBs in the league. Sure, both teams sport improved running games and very competitive defenses, no one can pretend the big story here isn't the quarterback play. Enjoy this one, and enjoy watching two of the greats go at it TD for TD. I think the Patriots, riding a wave of good football, will end the Saints amazing 10 game win streak in a high scoring affair.
Prediction:
Patriots 41
Saints 38

Record:
Last Week: 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the spread
Overall: 30-13 straight up, 25-18 against the spread

Again, I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving, and I'll be back with a new feature and some premature Giants draft talk later this week.

~Freeze

Feature: If They Played in the NFL

While it's true that I'm pretty late (a week and a half) getting this up, it's for good reason. Someone suggested an athlete that I was extremely intrigued by, but didn't know enough about to do a full write up. And considering the hugeness of the sport in the last 2 weeks, it seemed appropriate to go out and research this guy. Without further ado, I give you:

Floyd "Money" Mayweather
Professional Boxer (Welterweight)
5'8" 146 lbs

Position: We'll get to that

Before I go into what position Floyd would play in the NFL, I need to give a bit of a scouting report on him. Boxing isn't what it used to be in America, so a lot of folks might not know much about Mayweather. After watching a couple of fights, here's the skinny on him:

Mayweather is perhaps best known for his hand speed, and rightly so. He delivers a jab with great quickness, and had great accuracy in his punches to go with that speed. He is also a very technically sound defensive boxer, moving his head extremely well, using his hands effectively, and doing this great shoulder roll that causes quick punches to skim harmlessly away from his face. Floyd had pretty good footwork, but he's not Muhammad Ali in that department. If you're into good fundamental boxing with a bit of flash and showmanship, Floyd Mayweather is your guy.

With that out of the way, what to do with a 146 pound guy in the NFL? In a word, nothing. While I'd love to group him with the likes of Darren Sproles and Maurice Jones-Drew as a tough-as-nails little guy running back, there's no evidence of his actual speed. He doesn't train to run, but to close on an opponent quickly. Also, what benefit does world-class hand speed have for a running back? Exactly. So what is his position, hypothetically?

Position: Defensive End (on, like, a Pop Warner/pee wee league)

Take his size out of the equation, and Money's skills translate beautifully to defensive end. He moves his feet well, and explodes out of his stance in the ring, so he could have a very good first step coming off the line. Fast hands? How about working his hands against an elite left tackle, giving him a good release to the quarterback? Mayweather also has insanely good vision when he's up close on an opponent, so you could count on him to always keep his bearings in the chaos at the line of scrimmage, while always having an eye on the quarterback. I would just love to see Floyd Mayweather roll his shoulder and have Ryan Clady's hands slip right off of him, then get that quick strike to knock the ball out of a quarterback's hand. You're with me on this, right? Amazing! I'd play Floyd at right defensive end, as I see him as a better pass rusher than run stopper.

Of course, a 146 pound devensive lineman would get killed in the NFL, but this is purely hypothetical, right? With a unique athlete like Floyd "Money" Mayweather kicking around, it's fun to imagine what could be.

Hate the analysis? More suggestions? Comment! Also, be sure to hit up the new poll, and click some stupid ads while you're here and make me a few bucks!

~Freeze

NEW POLL!

A new poll has been posted further down on the right side of the page!

Seeing as how we're at Week 11, the won/loss records are coming into focus, and the dominant teams are separating from the pack. As a result, I think it's time we started talking about the post-season.

So cast your vote: which two teams will be rocking this year's Super Bowl (joined at halftime by the Who!!)? If one of your choices isn't listed, hit up "Other" and leave it in the comments.

~Freeze

Week 11 Picks

Lot of updates coming today, including a new poll, so I'll give the picks real quick and get on with the good stuff.

Upset Special
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags by 8 1/2
What to Watch For:
I don't put a lot of stock in the whole "let down after an emotional win" theory that permeates local sports talk radio, but I do think that line of almost 9 points is way too high. I expect the Bills to be energized under new head coach Perry Fewell and his mantra of "play like hell and win." If only for one week, the Bills should show some life, cover this ridiculous spread, and maybe win outright. The Jaguars are decent, but not great, and could get caught in a trap by the visiting Bills.
Prediction:
Bills 20
Jaguars 17

Blowout
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles by 3
What to Watch For:
Watch for the continued implosion of the Bears this week, plain and simple. Jay Cutler has been ridiculously up-and-down this year, and the Eagles' opportunistic secondary (matched against the Bears underwhelming receivers) to make him pay. The Eagles offense, on the other hand, has to be stinging after losing to San Diego last week, and McNabb won't let his team lose to this team. Even without Westbrook, the Eagles win this one going away.
Prediction:
Eagles 34
Bears 17

Most Interesting Game
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions by 3
What to Watch For:
I'm actually serious about this being the game I'm most interested in. I really want to find out which of these teams is worse. I have to say, the Browns might be in even greater disarray than Detroit, and it will show on Sunday. The Lions will win an ugly game against a surprisingly inferior opponent, and their 2 wins on the year will amaze experts everywhere. Interesting bit of minutia: this is the first time the Lions have been favored in a game all year!
Prediction:
Lions 13
Browns 9

Marquee Game
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Colts by 1 1/2
What to Watch For:
Watch the crowd in this one. The Battle for Baltimore brings out more animosity than any other rivalry in the NFL. On the field, Peyton Manning squaring off against the Ravens not-as-good-as-last-year defense should be a fun match up to follow. I'm more curious, though, if the Ravens will get back to playing like, well, the Ravens on offense, and run the ball at Indy's undersized defensive front. And for strictly personal and sentimental purposes, I'll be watching Michael Oher against Dwight Freeney and/or Robert Mathis. Get 'em, big boy! Despite the passion and hard hits, I still think Peyton finds a way to get out of Baltimore with another 'W.'
Prediction:
Colts 24
Ravens 20

Record:
Last Week: 3-1 straight up (shocked at how good the Bengals are), 2-2 against the spread (Blowout!!!!)
Overall: 27-12 straight up, 22-17 against the spread
Still looking for that big bounce-back week. Hopefully this is it. Come on Lions, you've been good to me this year!

~Freeze

Week 10 Picks

I had a lousy week of picks in Week 9. This week, you should particularly ignore my pick for Blowout, as my last three not only haven't covered (and therefore qualified as blowouts), but my picks lost outright. I've dropped 4 of them in that way on the year. This week I'm out for a little redemption, so forgive me if a couple of these picks seem fairly safe.

Upset Special
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys by 3
What to Watch For:
I still have a hard time believing a team with as much talent as the Packers has been playing so badly lately. I have a similarly hard time believing a team as neurotic as the Cowboys has been playing so well. I think it's time both teams return to form, with the Packers defense and running game finally coming to life to defend their home turf. Charles Woodson will give Tony Romo nightmares.
Prediction:
Packers 27
Cowboys 24

Blowout - DON'T READ IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHO WILL WIN THE GAME!
New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Saints by 13 1/2
What to Watch For:
Since I'm picking the Saints, the Rams will probably win this one outright. But seriously, I tried to pick not the highest spread, while trying to play my pick pretty safe so I finally hit on one of these. The Rams defense has a long way to go to claim legitimacy, especially with their pass rush. Look for Drew Brees to put up college spread-like numbers (think Graham Harrell circa 2008). I love Spags, but the Rams just can't compete with this caliber of team.
Prediction:
Saints 37
Rams 10

Most Interesting Game
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers by 7
What to Watch For:
The Bengals finally beat the Steelers earlier this year. Let's see them do it again, this time in Pittsburgh and against Troy Polamalu. Cincy has been great this year on both sides of the ball, whereas the Steelers have righted the ship and are playing very good football. I think this will be a tough game, with 2 very good defenses making life very hard for 2 elite quarterbacks. However, Pittsburgh is a very tough place to be the visiting team, so I expect the Steelers to win and cover.
Prediction:
Steelers 24
Bengals 17

Marquee Game
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts by 1 1/2
What to Watch For:
Touted as the Ali/Frazier of its generation (which, since QBs aren't on the field directly playing against each other, it isn't), this game should be an offensive explosion. The Patriots defense has been good but not great this year, and has yet to really hit a good rhythm. The Colts D is basically the ICU, with key players injured all over the place. The two best quarterbacks of their era will have a field day against defensive units that are simply no match for their arms or receivers. Seriously, what Patriots linebacker not named Jerod Mayo is going to cover Dallas Clark? I expect the Colts to win a tough one on their fast home track, with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis using that extra speed to disrupt Brady's shaky O-line.
Prediction:
Colts 34
Patriots 28

Record:
Last Week: 1-3 straight up and against the spread
Overall: 24-11 straight up, 20-15 against the spread

~Freeze

Week 9 Picks

I liked the format of last week's picks, so I'll give them another shot. Let me have it in the comments if you prefer the more detailed analysis.

Upset Special
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks by 10
What to Watch For:
Searching for a legitimate (spread over 3) Upset, I'm going back to my faithful Lions. They came through for me against Washington, and I think they might catch a struggling Seahawks team sleeping. Seattle can't run the ball, and the defense is banged up. Detroit's offense, with its key pieces back together, should scrap together enough points for a difficult road win.
Prediction:
Lions 17
Seahawks 14

Blowout
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Packers by 9 1/2
What to Watch For:
I've sucked at these lately, though they should be lay-ups. I think the Pack rebound powerfully after a tough loss to the Vikings and take advantage of a weak Bucs squad. Green Bay's attacking defense should be trouble for rookie QB Josh Freeman, and Tampa's D is just a mess. Aaron Rodgers and his stable of solid receivers should put together a very nice win here.
Prediction:
Packers 34
Bucs 14

Most Interesting Game
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears by 3
What to Watch For:
Arizona has bounced back from a rough start to look like the class of the NFC West again, while Chicago has fallen back to Earth after a few good performances and high hopes. I'm curious how Chicago's once-feared defense will square up against the Cards aerial assault. Plus, a couple of high-INT gunslingers like Cutler and Warner should put on a pretty good show. Plus, where's Matt Forte been this year? And can he break out against Arizona's suddenly dominant run defense? I don't think this is the week, dude.
Prediction:
Cardinals 27
Bears 21

Marquee Game
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles by 3
What to Watch For:
I'm watching the Eagles' opportunistic, pressure-heavy defense against an unpredictable, mistake-prone Tony Romo. Dallas hasn't been as awesome on the ground this year, and will be forced to throw into the belly of that beast. McNabb has really come on strong lately, and the Eagles in general have been rolling since dropping a turd against the Raiders. I think they continue that dominance at home in prime time.
Prediction:
Eagles 34
Cowboys 21

Record:
Last Week: 3-1 Straight Up, 3-1 Against the Spread (stupid Blowout pick. What do I know?)
Overall: 23-8 Straight Up, 19-12 Against the Spread

~Freeze

Feature: If They Played in the NFL

After the 2008 Summer Olympics, there was a lot of talk on NFL websites and message boards about one guy, and whether or not he could (or actually would) play football professionally. Of course, you know that man to be:

Usain Bolt
Olympic Sprinter (Jamaica)
6'5" 207 lbs

Position: Wide Receiver

If you're an offensive coordinator and you have a guy who's six-five and runs a 40-yard dash in, like, 4 seconds flat, what do you do with him? Line him up wide, tell him to run past the defense, and put the ball just above him and let him jump for it. Typically, track guys don't do well in the NFL, as they usually don't run good routes, and occasionally have trouble catching the ball (especially in traffic).

However, there hasn't been someone as ridiculously fast as Usain Bolt, well, ever. "Bullet" Bob Hayes, of the Cowboys of the 70's, is about the closest that comes to mind. Hayes was an Olympic track star, and coincidentally, positively destructive as an NFL receiver. There was simply no one that could cover him. The biggest difference between Bolt and Hayes, though, is size. Can you imagine the uproar if, say, Plaxico Burress had run a 4.1 40yd dash at his combine? There would be riots if a guy both that big and that fast was on a football field.

I can't really vouch much for Bolt's route running, but I don't think it would matter. He would need to know, like, 2 routes, and he would be crazy productive. Right at the snap, send him on "Go" routes or deep posts, let him just run, and put the ball near him. Game over. His hands are a question mark. However, he has run relays competitively, and that requires good hand strength and dexterity for baton passing, so I think he'd be okay.

Think Randy Moss is a record-setter? Forget it. Bolt is 3 inches taller than Jerry Rice, and a good amount faster. Rice had the best hands and ran the best routes in history, but I think Bolt's physical tools would put him at a Pro Bowl level instantly. The Cowboys would love a guy like him, as Jerry Jones loves high profile, fast players, and Romo has a strong enough arm to deliver the ball downfield. Imagine Bolt on the Pats. I won't even finish that thought...too scary. Really, though, his best fit I think is on either the Bears or Vikings. Both teams could use a big receiver to stretch the field. Jay Cutler would wet his pants at the thought of a 6'5" target who's faster than Devin Hester. Brett Favre to Usain Bolt? Yes.

How 'bout it? Any other suggestions?

~Freeze

Week 8 Picks

Week 8 already! Geez, this season is flying. So because I ran out of time this week (totally my bad), I'm gonna just shoot out my Week 8 picks rapid fire, with one deep thought on each game.

Upset Special
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals by 10
What to Watch For:
Look for DeAngelo Williams to get a lot of carries, as John Fox likes his teams to run the ball frequently and effectively. I don't know how Carolina will handle the Cards' receivers, but I just think it's time for the Panthers to put their foot down and right the ship. They're too good a team to keep sliding.
Prediction:
Panthers 27
Cardinals 21

Blowout
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans by 3
What to Watch For:
Two words: Vince Young. Jeff Fisher is benching career slouch and alcoholic Kerry Collins for the third overall pick from 2006. Young is an exciting player, but just isn't an NFL passer. Maurice Jones-Drew is an awesome back, and the Jaguars will keep Young down all game.
Prediction:
Jaguars 24
Titans 9

Most Interesting Game
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens by 3
What to Watch For:
It was either this or Falcons @ Saints, and frankly, I'm too mad at the Saints for dismantling the Giants to pick their game. So I'll pick the other watchable game with an unbeaten team. The Broncos have astounded everyone so far, while the Ravens have befuddled. I'm looking for Ray Lewis to have had enough of this sloppy play, whip that group into shape, and finally stop the surprising Denver juggernaut.
Prediction:
Ravens 21
Broncos 17

Marquee Game of the Week
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers by 3
What to Watch For:
Duh. Brett Favre's return to Green Bay as an enemy combatant. Really, though, I don't think Green Bay's defense can handle Adrian Peterson and the Favre-led passing attack. The secondary is pretty good, but the whole unit has proved nothing this year. Aaron Rodgers is a good QB, and will put up points, just not enough.
Prediction:
Vikings 34
Packers 24

Record:
Last Week: 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the spread
Overall: 20-7 straight up, 16-11 against the spread

I'm actually picking 3 underdogs this week, and my one favorite is the Ravens, who have burned me bad this year. Fingers crossed this week!!

~Freeze