Saturday, November 21, 2009

Week 11 Picks

Lot of updates coming today, including a new poll, so I'll give the picks real quick and get on with the good stuff.

Upset Special
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags by 8 1/2
What to Watch For:
I don't put a lot of stock in the whole "let down after an emotional win" theory that permeates local sports talk radio, but I do think that line of almost 9 points is way too high. I expect the Bills to be energized under new head coach Perry Fewell and his mantra of "play like hell and win." If only for one week, the Bills should show some life, cover this ridiculous spread, and maybe win outright. The Jaguars are decent, but not great, and could get caught in a trap by the visiting Bills.
Bills 20
Jaguars 17

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles by 3
What to Watch For:
Watch for the continued implosion of the Bears this week, plain and simple. Jay Cutler has been ridiculously up-and-down this year, and the Eagles' opportunistic secondary (matched against the Bears underwhelming receivers) to make him pay. The Eagles offense, on the other hand, has to be stinging after losing to San Diego last week, and McNabb won't let his team lose to this team. Even without Westbrook, the Eagles win this one going away.
Eagles 34
Bears 17

Most Interesting Game
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions by 3
What to Watch For:
I'm actually serious about this being the game I'm most interested in. I really want to find out which of these teams is worse. I have to say, the Browns might be in even greater disarray than Detroit, and it will show on Sunday. The Lions will win an ugly game against a surprisingly inferior opponent, and their 2 wins on the year will amaze experts everywhere. Interesting bit of minutia: this is the first time the Lions have been favored in a game all year!
Lions 13
Browns 9

Marquee Game
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Colts by 1 1/2
What to Watch For:
Watch the crowd in this one. The Battle for Baltimore brings out more animosity than any other rivalry in the NFL. On the field, Peyton Manning squaring off against the Ravens not-as-good-as-last-year defense should be a fun match up to follow. I'm more curious, though, if the Ravens will get back to playing like, well, the Ravens on offense, and run the ball at Indy's undersized defensive front. And for strictly personal and sentimental purposes, I'll be watching Michael Oher against Dwight Freeney and/or Robert Mathis. Get 'em, big boy! Despite the passion and hard hits, I still think Peyton finds a way to get out of Baltimore with another 'W.'
Colts 24
Ravens 20

Last Week: 3-1 straight up (shocked at how good the Bengals are), 2-2 against the spread (Blowout!!!!)
Overall: 27-12 straight up, 22-17 against the spread
Still looking for that big bounce-back week. Hopefully this is it. Come on Lions, you've been good to me this year!


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