Friday, November 13, 2009

Week 10 Picks

I had a lousy week of picks in Week 9. This week, you should particularly ignore my pick for Blowout, as my last three not only haven't covered (and therefore qualified as blowouts), but my picks lost outright. I've dropped 4 of them in that way on the year. This week I'm out for a little redemption, so forgive me if a couple of these picks seem fairly safe.

Upset Special
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys by 3
What to Watch For:
I still have a hard time believing a team with as much talent as the Packers has been playing so badly lately. I have a similarly hard time believing a team as neurotic as the Cowboys has been playing so well. I think it's time both teams return to form, with the Packers defense and running game finally coming to life to defend their home turf. Charles Woodson will give Tony Romo nightmares.
Packers 27
Cowboys 24

New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Saints by 13 1/2
What to Watch For:
Since I'm picking the Saints, the Rams will probably win this one outright. But seriously, I tried to pick not the highest spread, while trying to play my pick pretty safe so I finally hit on one of these. The Rams defense has a long way to go to claim legitimacy, especially with their pass rush. Look for Drew Brees to put up college spread-like numbers (think Graham Harrell circa 2008). I love Spags, but the Rams just can't compete with this caliber of team.
Saints 37
Rams 10

Most Interesting Game
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers by 7
What to Watch For:
The Bengals finally beat the Steelers earlier this year. Let's see them do it again, this time in Pittsburgh and against Troy Polamalu. Cincy has been great this year on both sides of the ball, whereas the Steelers have righted the ship and are playing very good football. I think this will be a tough game, with 2 very good defenses making life very hard for 2 elite quarterbacks. However, Pittsburgh is a very tough place to be the visiting team, so I expect the Steelers to win and cover.
Steelers 24
Bengals 17

Marquee Game
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts by 1 1/2
What to Watch For:
Touted as the Ali/Frazier of its generation (which, since QBs aren't on the field directly playing against each other, it isn't), this game should be an offensive explosion. The Patriots defense has been good but not great this year, and has yet to really hit a good rhythm. The Colts D is basically the ICU, with key players injured all over the place. The two best quarterbacks of their era will have a field day against defensive units that are simply no match for their arms or receivers. Seriously, what Patriots linebacker not named Jerod Mayo is going to cover Dallas Clark? I expect the Colts to win a tough one on their fast home track, with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis using that extra speed to disrupt Brady's shaky O-line.
Colts 34
Patriots 28

Last Week: 1-3 straight up and against the spread
Overall: 24-11 straight up, 20-15 against the spread


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