There's really only one legitimate choice for Marquee game, and that is:
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under: 45
Line: Vikings by 3 1/2
My Thoughts
This game is a Monday Night Football producer's wet dream. Brett Favre playing against the Packers is the only fair choice for Marquee game. The only way this gets any juicier would be if it were in Green Bay (which happens later in the year). However, despite the high profile this game brings with it, there are only a few major storylines to follow.
Both teams bring (objectively) very good quarterbacks, with receivers capable of big plays. I think the receiver edge goes to the Packers, where Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson can all stretch the field. Giving Aaron Rodgers time to hit these talented targets will be key, and I think nearly impossible. Antwan Odom destroyed the Packers' offensive line; does anyone really think Jared Allen can't do something similar? The Pack are likely to get off a few big plays, but Rodgers will spend a large part of the game running for his life.
Speaking of running, that's how this game will be won or lost. Both teams sport top flight corners and safeties, so the passing games will be limited on both sides. This will be a duel between Ryan Grant and Adrian Peterson. Care to guess who I give the edge in that one? Not former Giant Ryan Grant, that's for sure. I expect this game to be a good old fashioned NFC North slugfest, with the better running team pulling away late. I'll take the Vikings just barely covering that spread.
Prediction
Vikings 27
Packers 24
I'm riding a 3 week roll on these picks. I'm a little nervous about some of this week's choices, so that may bring my rockin' 7-0 record back down to earth. Looks like a monster slate of games, so enjoy it!
~Freeze
Friday, October 2, 2009
Week 4 Pick: Most Interesting Watch
My "Most Interesting" pick for Week 4 is really the runner-up for Marquee Game, which I think makes it an interesting watch on its own. I won't waste your time building it up, so I chose:
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Over/Under: 45
Line: Saints by 7
My Thoughts
What makes this game so exciting is the fact that the NFL's highest ranked offense is squaring off against the league's best defense. Rex Ryan's blitzing madness facing off against the cerebral mastery of Drew Brees? Yes, please!
The Bills, amazingly, were able to slow down the Saints' high-flying attack last week, so it will be interesting to see how the Jets fare. Darrelle Revis is an excellent corner, and can expect to be left one-on-one with Marques Colston all day. That's a match-up Revis should win much of the time. However, Lito Sheppard is out, leaving the Jets a little thin in the secondary. More of a workload will be placed on Dwight Lowery, and this is a huge challenge for him. If Colston is neutralized, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, Robert Meacham, and Jeremy Shockey just might be too much for the depleted Jets to handle.
The key here is how well New York can pressure Brees. He's a smart, mobile, and accurate quarterback, so Ryan will have be be very creative in his pressures to throw him off. Rex has the brains for it; Jets fans better hope he has the players to pull it off. Of course, the Saints proved that if you take away their great passing game, they can play the ground game very well. I don't see that being particularly effective against the very good Jets defense.
All this, and I haven't even talked about the much-improved New Orleans defense against Mark Sanchez and the New York offense. The Saints have a whole new defensive mentality under Gregg Williams, and have been playing much better than in previous years. Williams loves to blitz his players, and they will rely on this to get after the rookie Sanchez. However, supported by an effective run game, Sanchez has shown great poise and accuracy. I think the Jets offense is good enough to hang around in this game, and even to give them a real chance to win. I see this game being very close, but I think the Saints just prove to be too much. They'll win outright, but look for the Jets to cover the spread.
Prediction
Saints 28
Jets 24
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Over/Under: 45
Line: Saints by 7
My Thoughts
What makes this game so exciting is the fact that the NFL's highest ranked offense is squaring off against the league's best defense. Rex Ryan's blitzing madness facing off against the cerebral mastery of Drew Brees? Yes, please!
The Bills, amazingly, were able to slow down the Saints' high-flying attack last week, so it will be interesting to see how the Jets fare. Darrelle Revis is an excellent corner, and can expect to be left one-on-one with Marques Colston all day. That's a match-up Revis should win much of the time. However, Lito Sheppard is out, leaving the Jets a little thin in the secondary. More of a workload will be placed on Dwight Lowery, and this is a huge challenge for him. If Colston is neutralized, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, Robert Meacham, and Jeremy Shockey just might be too much for the depleted Jets to handle.
The key here is how well New York can pressure Brees. He's a smart, mobile, and accurate quarterback, so Ryan will have be be very creative in his pressures to throw him off. Rex has the brains for it; Jets fans better hope he has the players to pull it off. Of course, the Saints proved that if you take away their great passing game, they can play the ground game very well. I don't see that being particularly effective against the very good Jets defense.
All this, and I haven't even talked about the much-improved New Orleans defense against Mark Sanchez and the New York offense. The Saints have a whole new defensive mentality under Gregg Williams, and have been playing much better than in previous years. Williams loves to blitz his players, and they will rely on this to get after the rookie Sanchez. However, supported by an effective run game, Sanchez has shown great poise and accuracy. I think the Jets offense is good enough to hang around in this game, and even to give them a real chance to win. I see this game being very close, but I think the Saints just prove to be too much. They'll win outright, but look for the Jets to cover the spread.
Prediction
Saints 28
Jets 24
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Week 4 Pick: Upset
A reasonable person could argue that my pick doesn't really count as an upset. So I'm kinda cheating this week. I saw 3 games that could all qualify as bona fide Marquee games, so I picked the one I thought most ripe for an upset as this pick. Of course, the game I'm referring to is:
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Over/Under: 44 1/2
Line: Patriots by 2
My Thoughts
This is likely to be a monster of a game. The Patriots were finally able to get their offense in sync last week, so they should be ready for the challenge. Rex Ryan's Jets defense gave Tom Brady fits, and the Ravens are better and have done it for longer. It's a great offense against a great defense, which I expect will make for entertaining television.
However, I think this game will be decided on the other side. The fate of this match up lies in who wins the battle between Baltimore's offense and New England's defense. The Pats are banged up, inexperienced, or flat-out old all over the place. The Ravens have been on fire this year, ranking second in the AFC in total offense, and scoring over 30 points per game. These ain't your mama's Ravens, and this game is exactly the stage for them to establish themselves as a conference powerhouse.
And I think they do it. The Patriots are favored, but only because they're playing at home. The Ravens have steamrolled through the first three games, all of which were warm-ups for this challenge. This is the true test of how far Joe Flacco has come since last year's AFC Championship game, and I think the young guy is up to the task. I see plenty of points going up in this one, with the Ravens edging ahead on a late field goal.
Prediction
Ravens 31
Patriots 28
~Freeze
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Over/Under: 44 1/2
Line: Patriots by 2
My Thoughts
This is likely to be a monster of a game. The Patriots were finally able to get their offense in sync last week, so they should be ready for the challenge. Rex Ryan's Jets defense gave Tom Brady fits, and the Ravens are better and have done it for longer. It's a great offense against a great defense, which I expect will make for entertaining television.
However, I think this game will be decided on the other side. The fate of this match up lies in who wins the battle between Baltimore's offense and New England's defense. The Pats are banged up, inexperienced, or flat-out old all over the place. The Ravens have been on fire this year, ranking second in the AFC in total offense, and scoring over 30 points per game. These ain't your mama's Ravens, and this game is exactly the stage for them to establish themselves as a conference powerhouse.
And I think they do it. The Patriots are favored, but only because they're playing at home. The Ravens have steamrolled through the first three games, all of which were warm-ups for this challenge. This is the true test of how far Joe Flacco has come since last year's AFC Championship game, and I think the young guy is up to the task. I see plenty of points going up in this one, with the Ravens edging ahead on a late field goal.
Prediction
Ravens 31
Patriots 28
~Freeze
Week 4 Pick: Blowout
I've decided to take a different strategy for picking my blowout this week. Rather than look for the highest point spreads, and picking which one is the most likely, I've looked at the more middle-of-the-road spreads, and picked one I think is primed for a blowout. So rather than pick, for example, Colts/Seahawks or Niners/Rams, or heck even Bears/Lions, I went with:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 38
Line: Bengals by 6
My Thoughts
Considering how abysmal the Browns have been so far, and how impressive the Bengals were against the Packers and Steelers, I think a 6 point line is a little low. A team led by Carson Palmer, with a re-energized defense, and sporting dynamic receivers and a solid run game is favored by less than a touchdown? I don't think so.
This is a division game, and those are always a little tricky to pick. Teams that stink (Cleveland) can usually muster up some decent play against a division foe, making the line kinda wobbly. The Browns, however, are a mess. You know you're in trouble when your best aspect is your special teams, specifically Josh Cribbs. The defense just plain isn't good, and the offense has been, in a word, catastrophic. Brady Quinn was miserable in 2.5 starts. Derek Anderson comes in for one half, and throws 3 picks. What's amazing is that this is basically the same team that went 10-6 two years ago. Why are they so bad now?
Two words: Eric Mangini. The guy can't coach for crap, and I can't wrap my head around why the Browns were so high on him. Being a Giants fan, I clearly remember Mangini being run out of town with torches and pitchforks, and yet Cleveland welcomed him like some kind of Messiah. How's that working out? Regarded as a defensive mastermind, his system is bland and ineffective. Absent any talented skill players, his offense is truly horrid to watch.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, seems to have gotten their act together. No longer a collection of thugs and miscreants, this talented team is finally playing at the level many thought they should have been for years. There is a ton of talent all over the offense, from Palmer to Johnson and Coles, heck even Cedric Benson has experienced a revival for the Bengals. The defense, under coordinator Mike Zimmer, has been much improved, and may even be called decent. The Bengals are on the rise, and are primed to be a force to be reckoned with at last.
I don't think the Browns can even try to keep this one close. Cincy's offense is way too much for the Browns' D, and the Bengals can handle whatever offense the Browns think they can muster. Cleveland should at least score, maybe on a Cribbs return, but they'll never even be in this one.
Prediction
Bengals 28
Browns 10
~Freeze
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 38
Line: Bengals by 6
My Thoughts
Considering how abysmal the Browns have been so far, and how impressive the Bengals were against the Packers and Steelers, I think a 6 point line is a little low. A team led by Carson Palmer, with a re-energized defense, and sporting dynamic receivers and a solid run game is favored by less than a touchdown? I don't think so.
This is a division game, and those are always a little tricky to pick. Teams that stink (Cleveland) can usually muster up some decent play against a division foe, making the line kinda wobbly. The Browns, however, are a mess. You know you're in trouble when your best aspect is your special teams, specifically Josh Cribbs. The defense just plain isn't good, and the offense has been, in a word, catastrophic. Brady Quinn was miserable in 2.5 starts. Derek Anderson comes in for one half, and throws 3 picks. What's amazing is that this is basically the same team that went 10-6 two years ago. Why are they so bad now?
Two words: Eric Mangini. The guy can't coach for crap, and I can't wrap my head around why the Browns were so high on him. Being a Giants fan, I clearly remember Mangini being run out of town with torches and pitchforks, and yet Cleveland welcomed him like some kind of Messiah. How's that working out? Regarded as a defensive mastermind, his system is bland and ineffective. Absent any talented skill players, his offense is truly horrid to watch.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, seems to have gotten their act together. No longer a collection of thugs and miscreants, this talented team is finally playing at the level many thought they should have been for years. There is a ton of talent all over the offense, from Palmer to Johnson and Coles, heck even Cedric Benson has experienced a revival for the Bengals. The defense, under coordinator Mike Zimmer, has been much improved, and may even be called decent. The Bengals are on the rise, and are primed to be a force to be reckoned with at last.
I don't think the Browns can even try to keep this one close. Cincy's offense is way too much for the Browns' D, and the Bengals can handle whatever offense the Browns think they can muster. Cleveland should at least score, maybe on a Cribbs return, but they'll never even be in this one.
Prediction
Bengals 28
Browns 10
~Freeze
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Wednesday Feature: If They Played in the NFL
For the next few weeks (maybe months), the Wednesday "let's-not-take-the-season-too-seriously" feature will focus on athletes in other sports, and what they're positions, strengths, and weaknesses would be if they played football. I will not be taking into account whether or not they previously played football in college, high school, YMCA summer camp, or anything like that. I will only be using players who are still active in their sport of choice. I'll gladly welcome suggestions in the Comments section.
For our inaugural "If They Played in the NFL" feature, I'll start with the most important position on the field: Quarterback.
Non-NFL Quarterback
Tim Lincecum, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants
5'11" 170 lbs
It would be easy to second guess this decision based solely on Lincecum's measurables. However, I think he has a little Drew Brees in him, as the little QB who could. He may be small, but he uses every inch of his wiry frame to propel his fastball into the mid-90s. His motion is fairly compact, his wind-up quick, which would help him avoid sacks and pressure. The biggest contributor to this selection, however, was Lincecum's control. Sure, he's got a flamethrower of a right arm, but his ball placement is extremely accurate, and his off-speed pitches are very sneaky.
Lincecum's blazing ball speed and excellent placement call to mind a little bit of John Elway at his best. He could consistently hit receivers between defenders, rocketing the ball into some very tight spots. Tim Lincecum would likely throw a very long, accurate deep ball, making big plays a huge part of his offense. That arm strength and accuracy would make him a tempting target for the Raiders, but he would likely thrive best in Arizona (with excellent deep-threat receivers) or, obviously, New Orleans.
The only real knock on the kid is his size, which would make it easy for defenders to clog his passing lanes, making it difficult for him to find open receivers. He would probably work best out of the shotgun, where he could see the field better, or on designed roll-outs or bootlegs. Despite these (pun fully intended) shortcomings, Lincecum would likely be a very effective QB in the right system.
Back-up QB
Mariano Rivera, Closing Pitcher, New York Yankees
I see MLB pitchers making very good QBs, with the skill sets being similar. Mo has been very good for a long time, and would make an excellent veteran backup for Lincecum, who could come in and run a similar offense should Tim get injured.
Agree? Disagree? Don't know who Tim Lincecum is? Make suggestions in the Comments section. I'll try to do as many of these as I can, as I think it's kind of a fun exercise.
~Freeze
For our inaugural "If They Played in the NFL" feature, I'll start with the most important position on the field: Quarterback.
Non-NFL Quarterback
Tim Lincecum, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants
5'11" 170 lbs
It would be easy to second guess this decision based solely on Lincecum's measurables. However, I think he has a little Drew Brees in him, as the little QB who could. He may be small, but he uses every inch of his wiry frame to propel his fastball into the mid-90s. His motion is fairly compact, his wind-up quick, which would help him avoid sacks and pressure. The biggest contributor to this selection, however, was Lincecum's control. Sure, he's got a flamethrower of a right arm, but his ball placement is extremely accurate, and his off-speed pitches are very sneaky.
Lincecum's blazing ball speed and excellent placement call to mind a little bit of John Elway at his best. He could consistently hit receivers between defenders, rocketing the ball into some very tight spots. Tim Lincecum would likely throw a very long, accurate deep ball, making big plays a huge part of his offense. That arm strength and accuracy would make him a tempting target for the Raiders, but he would likely thrive best in Arizona (with excellent deep-threat receivers) or, obviously, New Orleans.
The only real knock on the kid is his size, which would make it easy for defenders to clog his passing lanes, making it difficult for him to find open receivers. He would probably work best out of the shotgun, where he could see the field better, or on designed roll-outs or bootlegs. Despite these (pun fully intended) shortcomings, Lincecum would likely be a very effective QB in the right system.
Back-up QB
Mariano Rivera, Closing Pitcher, New York Yankees
I see MLB pitchers making very good QBs, with the skill sets being similar. Mo has been very good for a long time, and would make an excellent veteran backup for Lincecum, who could come in and run a similar offense should Tim get injured.
Agree? Disagree? Don't know who Tim Lincecum is? Make suggestions in the Comments section. I'll try to do as many of these as I can, as I think it's kind of a fun exercise.
~Freeze
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Giants v Buccaneers Recap
This should be an easy one, not unlike the game. Why waste time talking about it? Here we go:
Highlights
Ahmad Bradshaw
14 carries for 104 yards is an awfully good day for the backup RB. Watching the game, the Bucs simply had no answer for Bradshaw. He was too strong, too quick, and his vision was too good for them to contain him, even on limited touches. Well done, 44.
NYG Run Defense
I ripped this unit a new one last week. Clearly, they were listening, as they responded with an inspiring performance against what is a pretty good running team. Granted, Tampa Bay was playing from behind pretty much from kickoff, so they had to throw a lot. But limiting a team to 28 yards rushing, more than half of which resulted from one QB scramble in 4th quarter garbage time, is a dominating performance no matter how you look at it.
Terrell Thomas
That timely INT of his now means that each of the Giants three healthy cornerbacks has an interception, and we're only 3 games into the season. Throw in Kenny Phillips' (poor Kenny) 2 last week, and we have 5 INTs in 3 games. Remember when this secondary was a huge, glaring liability, and any team with at least a high school quarterback could just throw all over us? Those days are gone, kids. Welcome to balanced, dominant-at-all-3-levels defense.
Travis Beckum
Whatever. Everyone on the Giants deserves a Highlight for a 24-0 destruction of a conference opponent. I'll actually justify this seemingly (and actually) random choice by saying that we saw a brief glimpse of why the Giants drafted Beckum this April. In the fourth quarter, he caught a quick pass and turned upfield for a 7 yard game. Beckum looked very quick on that play, and it's easy to see that speed being a major mismatch against linebackers as the season wears on.
14 carries for 104 yards is an awfully good day for the backup RB. Watching the game, the Bucs simply had no answer for Bradshaw. He was too strong, too quick, and his vision was too good for them to contain him, even on limited touches. Well done, 44.
NYG Run Defense
I ripped this unit a new one last week. Clearly, they were listening, as they responded with an inspiring performance against what is a pretty good running team. Granted, Tampa Bay was playing from behind pretty much from kickoff, so they had to throw a lot. But limiting a team to 28 yards rushing, more than half of which resulted from one QB scramble in 4th quarter garbage time, is a dominating performance no matter how you look at it.
Terrell Thomas
That timely INT of his now means that each of the Giants three healthy cornerbacks has an interception, and we're only 3 games into the season. Throw in Kenny Phillips' (poor Kenny) 2 last week, and we have 5 INTs in 3 games. Remember when this secondary was a huge, glaring liability, and any team with at least a high school quarterback could just throw all over us? Those days are gone, kids. Welcome to balanced, dominant-at-all-3-levels defense.
Travis Beckum
Whatever. Everyone on the Giants deserves a Highlight for a 24-0 destruction of a conference opponent. I'll actually justify this seemingly (and actually) random choice by saying that we saw a brief glimpse of why the Giants drafted Beckum this April. In the fourth quarter, he caught a quick pass and turned upfield for a 7 yard game. Beckum looked very quick on that play, and it's easy to see that speed being a major mismatch against linebackers as the season wears on.
Lowlights
Byron Leftwich
Can I give a Lowlight to the entire Bucs squad? Just focusing on Lord Byron, though, going 7 of 22 for 28 yards with an interception is incredibly bad. A 4 yards-per-attempt average is just not NFL quality play. Leftwich looked slow (which he is), confused, and frustrated all day. He was rushed into every throw, was completely off-target, and made very few good decisions.
Derrick Ward
If you're gonna trash talk all week, Mr. Ward, you need to show up on game day. Gaining 2 yards on 5 carries is laughable, especially considering that Tampa Bay's offensive line actually pushes a pretty good run block. Bet you wish you were back in New York!
Aqib Talib
Eli Manning ate Talib for breakfast on Sunday. The Fox commentators really nailed it when they noted that Talib was always in position to make a play, he just never made one. He had great position on Sinorice Moss (Sinorice Moss!!!), and couldn't stop a 5'8" receiver from winning the jump ball. Are you kidding me? For a kid with major maturity and discipline problems, he needs to play a whole lot better of he's going to stay in the league.
Can I give a Lowlight to the entire Bucs squad? Just focusing on Lord Byron, though, going 7 of 22 for 28 yards with an interception is incredibly bad. A 4 yards-per-attempt average is just not NFL quality play. Leftwich looked slow (which he is), confused, and frustrated all day. He was rushed into every throw, was completely off-target, and made very few good decisions.
Derrick Ward
If you're gonna trash talk all week, Mr. Ward, you need to show up on game day. Gaining 2 yards on 5 carries is laughable, especially considering that Tampa Bay's offensive line actually pushes a pretty good run block. Bet you wish you were back in New York!
Aqib Talib
Eli Manning ate Talib for breakfast on Sunday. The Fox commentators really nailed it when they noted that Talib was always in position to make a play, he just never made one. He had great position on Sinorice Moss (Sinorice Moss!!!), and couldn't stop a 5'8" receiver from winning the jump ball. Are you kidding me? For a kid with major maturity and discipline problems, he needs to play a whole lot better of he's going to stay in the league.
Notes
Not a lot to make note of this game. It's noteworthy, I suppose, that the Giants haven't shut out an opponent on the road since 1983. That's a pretty cool thing, I guess.
The Giants need to fatten up on these kinds of games, as the schedule gets quite a bit harder in a few weeks. They need to treat the games against Kansas City and Oakland like training camp, and use them to fix some of the things that have been troubling them. A 5-0 start isn't a given, but it is necessary if they expect to end the season as NFC East champs again. There are too many hard games against good teams down the road to make up ground lost early in the year. Continuing this level of dominance will be a great confidence-builder as guys start to get healthy again.
Not to, you know, brag, but I did manage to go 4-0 on my Week 3 Picks. Yeah, Lions! I was 4-0 against the spread, as well. That puts me at 11-0 straight up, 10-1 against the spread. I'll try to take some bigger risks with the picks this week (like picking 3 dogs last week, one of which WAS THE LIONS wasn't a big risk).
~Freeze
The Giants need to fatten up on these kinds of games, as the schedule gets quite a bit harder in a few weeks. They need to treat the games against Kansas City and Oakland like training camp, and use them to fix some of the things that have been troubling them. A 5-0 start isn't a given, but it is necessary if they expect to end the season as NFC East champs again. There are too many hard games against good teams down the road to make up ground lost early in the year. Continuing this level of dominance will be a great confidence-builder as guys start to get healthy again.
Not to, you know, brag, but I did manage to go 4-0 on my Week 3 Picks. Yeah, Lions! I was 4-0 against the spread, as well. That puts me at 11-0 straight up, 10-1 against the spread. I'll try to take some bigger risks with the picks this week (like picking 3 dogs last week, one of which WAS THE LIONS wasn't a big risk).
~Freeze
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Sunday Night Update
I'll interrupt the Sunday Night Football game (surprisingly low scoring so far) to brag a little.
I took some chances this week on my picks, and am proud to mention that so far today I'm 3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread. Saints/Bills wasn't the blowout I expected, but they beat the spread. And how about those Lions?! I knew they'd come through for me if I picked 'em!
My last pick was the Colts over the Cardinals. Come on, Peyton! Don't let me down!
~Freeze
I took some chances this week on my picks, and am proud to mention that so far today I'm 3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread. Saints/Bills wasn't the blowout I expected, but they beat the spread. And how about those Lions?! I knew they'd come through for me if I picked 'em!
My last pick was the Colts over the Cardinals. Come on, Peyton! Don't let me down!
~Freeze
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Week 3 Fantasy Forecast
Time for some Week 3 Fantasy outlooks. Let's see how the match ups look this week.
Drew Brees
Have you seen the numbers this guy is putting up this year? He ripped up a very good Eagles defense last week, and should do something similarly destructive against the Bills. Until he gives you a reason not to, you start Drew Brees. 300 yards, 4 touchdowns sound reasonable?
Baltimore Ravens Defense
Much like Drew Brees, this group should be played any time you have the choice. Now they get to set their crosshairs on a very poor Browns offense, which may be without Jamal Lewis. Ripe for the pickin'!
Brandon Jacobs
I gotta give some love to the big man, who has gotten off to a slow start this year. The Bucs defense doesn't know what they're trying to be, so look for this to be the week the Giants get the running game on track. 120 yards, 2 TDs
Chris Johnson
The kid can run, but he's up against a Jets defense that has been stifling to the point of not giving up an offensive touchdown in 2 games. They're disciplined, aggressive, and fast, so don't look for this to be CJ's best week. 75 yards, 0 TDs
JaMarcus Russell
I guess I'll explain it. This guy sucks. He's completed less than 40% of his throws on the year, and can't hit WRs short or intermediate. Now he has to throw against Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins in the Broncos secondary. If I have to tell you to sit this guy, I also have to ask why you drafted him in the first place 115 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Adrian Peterson
Controversy!!!! Yeah, I know, you should never sit AP, but that 49ers defense is really good, and the Peterson vs Willis battle should be sweet to watch. As amazing as Adrian Peterson is, he can be shut down by top flight defenders, and I think this will be an off week for him. 90 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Matt Forte
Forte has gotten off to a very slow start thus far, but has a favorable match up this week against the banged up Seahawks defense. Seattle is down 2 starting LBs, and you just feel like this kid is primed for a breakout game. 115 yards, 2 TDs, 6 catches, 55 yards
Beanie Wells
Any RB playing the Colts should be considered until they prove otherwise. Wells may not put up a ton of yards, both because the Cardinals barely run the ball, and from ball-ninja Tim Hightower, but I expect him to score on Indy. 85 yards, 2 TDs, 4 catches, 24 yards
Derrick Ward
The Giants were absolutely gashed last week by Dallas, and Tampa Bay has shown some real ability to run the ball. With standout Safety Kenny Phillips lost for the year, and Justin Tuck possibly out with a sore shoulder, there is vulnerability there that Ward absolutely knows how to take advantage of. 110 yards, 1 TD, 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD
~Freeze
Like a Boss
Drew Brees
Have you seen the numbers this guy is putting up this year? He ripped up a very good Eagles defense last week, and should do something similarly destructive against the Bills. Until he gives you a reason not to, you start Drew Brees. 300 yards, 4 touchdowns sound reasonable?
Baltimore Ravens Defense
Much like Drew Brees, this group should be played any time you have the choice. Now they get to set their crosshairs on a very poor Browns offense, which may be without Jamal Lewis. Ripe for the pickin'!
Brandon Jacobs
I gotta give some love to the big man, who has gotten off to a slow start this year. The Bucs defense doesn't know what they're trying to be, so look for this to be the week the Giants get the running game on track. 120 yards, 2 TDs
Like a Bum
Chris Johnson
The kid can run, but he's up against a Jets defense that has been stifling to the point of not giving up an offensive touchdown in 2 games. They're disciplined, aggressive, and fast, so don't look for this to be CJ's best week. 75 yards, 0 TDs
JaMarcus Russell
I guess I'll explain it. This guy sucks. He's completed less than 40% of his throws on the year, and can't hit WRs short or intermediate. Now he has to throw against Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins in the Broncos secondary. If I have to tell you to sit this guy, I also have to ask why you drafted him in the first place 115 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Adrian Peterson
Controversy!!!! Yeah, I know, you should never sit AP, but that 49ers defense is really good, and the Peterson vs Willis battle should be sweet to watch. As amazing as Adrian Peterson is, he can be shut down by top flight defenders, and I think this will be an off week for him. 90 yards, 0 touchdowns.
Sleepers
Matt Forte
Forte has gotten off to a very slow start thus far, but has a favorable match up this week against the banged up Seahawks defense. Seattle is down 2 starting LBs, and you just feel like this kid is primed for a breakout game. 115 yards, 2 TDs, 6 catches, 55 yards
Beanie Wells
Any RB playing the Colts should be considered until they prove otherwise. Wells may not put up a ton of yards, both because the Cardinals barely run the ball, and from ball-ninja Tim Hightower, but I expect him to score on Indy. 85 yards, 2 TDs, 4 catches, 24 yards
Derrick Ward
The Giants were absolutely gashed last week by Dallas, and Tampa Bay has shown some real ability to run the ball. With standout Safety Kenny Phillips lost for the year, and Justin Tuck possibly out with a sore shoulder, there is vulnerability there that Ward absolutely knows how to take advantage of. 110 yards, 1 TD, 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD
~Freeze
Friday, September 25, 2009
Week 3 Pick: Most Interesting Watch
There are a couple of games that interest me this week, but not a lot that really stood out. Panthers/Cowboys would be sweet if Jake Delhomme wasn't playing like Brett Favre circa 2005. Vikings/Niners (the only 2-0 team battle) would be great if I had a better feel for what San Fran is at this point. Titans/Jets might be alright, but Tennessee has been really weird this year, so there might not be much to see there. There's really only one game that jumps at me on the Week 3 schedule, and that is:
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under: 48 1/2
Line: Cardinals by 2 1/2
My Thoughts:
That's a very iffy line for the Cards, and if you consider that home field advantage usually nets you a 3 point edge, the Colts are really favored by a half point. Frankly, I'm surprised Arizona is favored at all. They looked awful in their first game, and has a nice rebound in week 2. Indy has been shaky so far, but Peyton Manning finds ways to win games no matter what.
The reason I pegged this game as the Most Interesting is that these teams are almost clones of each other. You have smart QBs who make timely, accurate throws. You have explosive receivers capable if big plays down the field. You have defenses with good (not great) corners and safeties, and very talented pass rushers. You have two teams that don't run the ball well, and aren't known for stopping the run. This is not a game that will be decided on the ground, but rather the fate of these teams resides in the hands of Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning. Whichever guy exploits the opponent's defense more effectively will win.
One thing really stands out about this game, and that's Larry Fitzgerald against the Colts' secondary. He torched Pittsburgh's excellent backfield in the Super Bowl, and the Colts' corners simply don't match up as well. He'll be double (or triple) teamed all day, so Anquan Boldin should find plenty of spots underneath, and Steve Breaston should be able to work effectively out of the slot. Ken Whisenhunt wants to run the ball, but Arizona sucks at it. Beanie Wells was the right pickup for them, but the O-line doesn't run-block well, they don't give him holes, and the Colts LBs are fast enough to close in on him in those tight spots.
The Colts, likewise, are not a run-first team. Donald Brown, like Wells above, was absolutely the right pick, but again, they don't have an elite run-blocking offensive line. Nor, for that matter, do they run behind a fullback to give their runners more room. And I just have no faith in Joseph Addai. Sorry dude. The Colts will come out slinging the ball, and I think it's fair to expect a big-time shootout between two explosive offenses. If you like big plays, highlight-reel catches, and great QB play, this game should be great to watch. Arizona is finally a pretty good team, with the best receiver corps in the game, but Kurt Warner does not outplay Peyton Manning this time.
Prediction:
Colts 31
Cardinals 27
I picked a lot of upsets this week (3 out of 4, actually), so I hope I can't be accused of playing it safe or frontrunning anymore. I actually feel pretty strongly about this week's picks, so I'm interested to see how my record holds up.
~Freeze
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under: 48 1/2
Line: Cardinals by 2 1/2
My Thoughts:
That's a very iffy line for the Cards, and if you consider that home field advantage usually nets you a 3 point edge, the Colts are really favored by a half point. Frankly, I'm surprised Arizona is favored at all. They looked awful in their first game, and has a nice rebound in week 2. Indy has been shaky so far, but Peyton Manning finds ways to win games no matter what.
The reason I pegged this game as the Most Interesting is that these teams are almost clones of each other. You have smart QBs who make timely, accurate throws. You have explosive receivers capable if big plays down the field. You have defenses with good (not great) corners and safeties, and very talented pass rushers. You have two teams that don't run the ball well, and aren't known for stopping the run. This is not a game that will be decided on the ground, but rather the fate of these teams resides in the hands of Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning. Whichever guy exploits the opponent's defense more effectively will win.
One thing really stands out about this game, and that's Larry Fitzgerald against the Colts' secondary. He torched Pittsburgh's excellent backfield in the Super Bowl, and the Colts' corners simply don't match up as well. He'll be double (or triple) teamed all day, so Anquan Boldin should find plenty of spots underneath, and Steve Breaston should be able to work effectively out of the slot. Ken Whisenhunt wants to run the ball, but Arizona sucks at it. Beanie Wells was the right pickup for them, but the O-line doesn't run-block well, they don't give him holes, and the Colts LBs are fast enough to close in on him in those tight spots.
The Colts, likewise, are not a run-first team. Donald Brown, like Wells above, was absolutely the right pick, but again, they don't have an elite run-blocking offensive line. Nor, for that matter, do they run behind a fullback to give their runners more room. And I just have no faith in Joseph Addai. Sorry dude. The Colts will come out slinging the ball, and I think it's fair to expect a big-time shootout between two explosive offenses. If you like big plays, highlight-reel catches, and great QB play, this game should be great to watch. Arizona is finally a pretty good team, with the best receiver corps in the game, but Kurt Warner does not outplay Peyton Manning this time.
Prediction:
Colts 31
Cardinals 27
I picked a lot of upsets this week (3 out of 4, actually), so I hope I can't be accused of playing it safe or frontrunning anymore. I actually feel pretty strongly about this week's picks, so I'm interested to see how my record holds up.
~Freeze
Week 3 Pick: Blowout
There is one team in the league for which I could pick a blowout every week. Those would have been a safe pick before the season started, and they have only exceeded offensive expectations. It's tempting to pick the Baltimore/Cleveland game because of the 13 point spread. However, I only see one certifiable blowout on this schedule, and it's:
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Over/Under: 28 1/2
Line: Saints by 6
My Thoughts:
First, how can the over/under on this game be 28 1/2, when the Saints average 46.5 points a game? That is ludicrous, and you have to assume the over on this. Now to the game...
The Bills' secondary has talent. McGee, McKelvin, and McWhitner(?) are all pretty good. Those guys can cover, and they tackle well in the open field. However, the Eagles' secondary is as good or better, and Drew Brees absolutely shredded them. His receivers, tight ends, and running backs can catch the ball at every level, and there aren't enough defensive backs on the Bills to cover them all effectively. The best thing Drew Brees does is find the open receiver and make the accurate throw to the right guy. There is too much potential for offensive explosion for a good, but slightly banged up, Bills defense to contend with.
Buffalo's offense is starting to come together. TO, while not getting a lot of balls thrown his way, is starting to have an impact, and the running game has been really solid. The Bills will challenge the Saints defense in a way they haven't seen yet this year. While Philly has very good skill players, they don't have TO, Lee Evans, and Fred Jackson healthy and working in sync. Plus, Trent Edwards is a way better QB than Kevin Kolb. I think the Bills can score on New Orleans, I just don't know if they can score enough.
I'm amazed by the line on this game. The Saints are favored by 6 on the road, which means they would be favored by 9 at home. The Redskins are favored by more against the Lions (and you know how I picked that game). There's no way this doesn't favor the Saints. I think we'll see a lot of points on the board in this game, but the Saints offense continues to amaze.
Prediction:
Saints 42
Bills 28
~Freeze
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Over/Under: 28 1/2
Line: Saints by 6
My Thoughts:
First, how can the over/under on this game be 28 1/2, when the Saints average 46.5 points a game? That is ludicrous, and you have to assume the over on this. Now to the game...
The Bills' secondary has talent. McGee, McKelvin, and McWhitner(?) are all pretty good. Those guys can cover, and they tackle well in the open field. However, the Eagles' secondary is as good or better, and Drew Brees absolutely shredded them. His receivers, tight ends, and running backs can catch the ball at every level, and there aren't enough defensive backs on the Bills to cover them all effectively. The best thing Drew Brees does is find the open receiver and make the accurate throw to the right guy. There is too much potential for offensive explosion for a good, but slightly banged up, Bills defense to contend with.
Buffalo's offense is starting to come together. TO, while not getting a lot of balls thrown his way, is starting to have an impact, and the running game has been really solid. The Bills will challenge the Saints defense in a way they haven't seen yet this year. While Philly has very good skill players, they don't have TO, Lee Evans, and Fred Jackson healthy and working in sync. Plus, Trent Edwards is a way better QB than Kevin Kolb. I think the Bills can score on New Orleans, I just don't know if they can score enough.
I'm amazed by the line on this game. The Saints are favored by 6 on the road, which means they would be favored by 9 at home. The Redskins are favored by more against the Lions (and you know how I picked that game). There's no way this doesn't favor the Saints. I think we'll see a lot of points on the board in this game, but the Saints offense continues to amaze.
Prediction:
Saints 42
Bills 28
~Freeze
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Week 3 Pick: Marquee Game
Not a lot of flash on the Week 3 schedule. Vikings/Niners is the only game between 2-0 teams, but it's too early to know what the 49ers really are. I'm impressed by them, but I'm far from sold on them. The only other game this week that really fits the Marquee bill (from what I saw) is:
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Over/Under: 47
Line: Patriots by 4 1/2
My Thoughts:
Atlanta was sort of the NFL's darling Cinderella story last year, and New England has been the marquee team of the decade. Both teams feature high-end quarterbacks, potentially explosive offenses, and defenses that currently qualify as question marks or works in progress. Tom Brady hasn't looked his usual self thus far, whereas Matt Ryan has been pretty sharp.
Atlanta's defense interests me, and Mike Peterson seems to have been an extremely good pickup. He has stepped up as the leader of the defense and improved the quality of play of the whole group. Their secondary doesn't seem particularly strong, and losing Peria Jerry for the season will definitely affect their run defense. Luckily for them, the Pats don't run much anyway. John Abraham can put some real pressure on Brady, and Peterson is just the kind of tough, heady linebacker that could cause a problem.
I don't know what to make of the Patriots this year. The offense has looked very sluggish, lacking any kind of rhythm. Brady looks uncomfortable in the pocket, and his throws have been jittery and off-target. They still haven't gotten the run game going, despite the addition of Fred Taylor, who has more gas in the tank than people (maybe even the Pats) think. The defense has been, and I hate to say it, pretty bad. Losing Harrison, Vrabel, Bruschi, and Seymour has affected them possibly more than they expected. Jerod Mayo's injury sucks even more talent off the field. This is a group that should be good, but has yet to get their act together.
This is a hard game to call. I can see Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez going crazy on the Patriots either old or inexperience linebackers. The Patriots offense, on the other hand, simply has to hit their stride at some point. They have too much talent to continue playing at this level. I can't be entirely sure this is the week it comes together for them, but I think the weak run D and not-as-good-as-the-Patriots-WRs secondary favor a good turnaround.
I see this as a high scoring affair, and the more potent offense will win. I'll go for the Pats on this one, and covering the spread.
Prediction:
Patriots 38
Falcons 31
~Freeze
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Over/Under: 47
Line: Patriots by 4 1/2
My Thoughts:
Atlanta was sort of the NFL's darling Cinderella story last year, and New England has been the marquee team of the decade. Both teams feature high-end quarterbacks, potentially explosive offenses, and defenses that currently qualify as question marks or works in progress. Tom Brady hasn't looked his usual self thus far, whereas Matt Ryan has been pretty sharp.
Atlanta's defense interests me, and Mike Peterson seems to have been an extremely good pickup. He has stepped up as the leader of the defense and improved the quality of play of the whole group. Their secondary doesn't seem particularly strong, and losing Peria Jerry for the season will definitely affect their run defense. Luckily for them, the Pats don't run much anyway. John Abraham can put some real pressure on Brady, and Peterson is just the kind of tough, heady linebacker that could cause a problem.
I don't know what to make of the Patriots this year. The offense has looked very sluggish, lacking any kind of rhythm. Brady looks uncomfortable in the pocket, and his throws have been jittery and off-target. They still haven't gotten the run game going, despite the addition of Fred Taylor, who has more gas in the tank than people (maybe even the Pats) think. The defense has been, and I hate to say it, pretty bad. Losing Harrison, Vrabel, Bruschi, and Seymour has affected them possibly more than they expected. Jerod Mayo's injury sucks even more talent off the field. This is a group that should be good, but has yet to get their act together.
This is a hard game to call. I can see Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez going crazy on the Patriots either old or inexperience linebackers. The Patriots offense, on the other hand, simply has to hit their stride at some point. They have too much talent to continue playing at this level. I can't be entirely sure this is the week it comes together for them, but I think the weak run D and not-as-good-as-the-Patriots-WRs secondary favor a good turnaround.
I see this as a high scoring affair, and the more potent offense will win. I'll go for the Pats on this one, and covering the spread.
Prediction:
Patriots 38
Falcons 31
~Freeze
Week 3 Pick: Upset
Upsets are always fun to pick, because they necessarily entail going out on a huge limb. This week, I'm going out on the biggest limb ever:
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 38 1/2
Line: Redskins by 6 1/2
My Thoughts:
Picking the Lions to upset? Really? Yes, really. Washington is a hot mess right now; the offense looks awful, and the very-talented defense has shown some real vulnerability. Detroit's offense does have weapons, between Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, and Brandon Pettigrew. It's not as though this group can't put up yards, and even points. The x-factor here is the Lions' defense. Their linebacking corps received a pretty substantial overhaul. The injury to Ernie Sims is scary, but Larry Foote and Julian Peterson bring a winning mentality and a lot of discipline and skill to the defense.
I believe that the Detroit Lions defense has the potential to be very okay. Louis Delmas holds down an adequate secondary, the LBs are solid, and the D-line is alright. Thankfully, it doesn't take the '85 Bears to stop the Redskins offense. Washington traditionally doesn't play well at Ford Field, and I think this Lions team could really sneak up on them.
Washington is favored by 6 1/2 points here, but since the Lions automatically are spotted 3 for playing at home (usual point spread logic), it's more like a 9 1/2 point spread. With the Redskins' dysfunctional offense likely to sputter in the home of a sneakily okay Lions team, Detroit should more than cover, and I'll call them to win outright.
Prediction
Lions 20
Redskins 14
My Record after Week 2
7-0, 6-1 against the spread
I think I've played my picks a little too safe so far, so this pick is a huge risk. Don't let me down, Lions!
~Freeze
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 38 1/2
Line: Redskins by 6 1/2
My Thoughts:
Picking the Lions to upset? Really? Yes, really. Washington is a hot mess right now; the offense looks awful, and the very-talented defense has shown some real vulnerability. Detroit's offense does have weapons, between Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, and Brandon Pettigrew. It's not as though this group can't put up yards, and even points. The x-factor here is the Lions' defense. Their linebacking corps received a pretty substantial overhaul. The injury to Ernie Sims is scary, but Larry Foote and Julian Peterson bring a winning mentality and a lot of discipline and skill to the defense.
I believe that the Detroit Lions defense has the potential to be very okay. Louis Delmas holds down an adequate secondary, the LBs are solid, and the D-line is alright. Thankfully, it doesn't take the '85 Bears to stop the Redskins offense. Washington traditionally doesn't play well at Ford Field, and I think this Lions team could really sneak up on them.
Washington is favored by 6 1/2 points here, but since the Lions automatically are spotted 3 for playing at home (usual point spread logic), it's more like a 9 1/2 point spread. With the Redskins' dysfunctional offense likely to sputter in the home of a sneakily okay Lions team, Detroit should more than cover, and I'll call them to win outright.
Prediction
Lions 20
Redskins 14
My Record after Week 2
7-0, 6-1 against the spread
I think I've played my picks a little too safe so far, so this pick is a huge risk. Don't let me down, Lions!
~Freeze
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