Thursday, October 1, 2009

Week 4 Pick: Upset

A reasonable person could argue that my pick doesn't really count as an upset. So I'm kinda cheating this week. I saw 3 games that could all qualify as bona fide Marquee games, so I picked the one I thought most ripe for an upset as this pick. Of course, the game I'm referring to is:

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

Over/Under: 44 1/2
Line: Patriots by 2

My Thoughts
This is likely to be a monster of a game. The Patriots were finally able to get their offense in sync last week, so they should be ready for the challenge. Rex Ryan's Jets defense gave Tom Brady fits, and the Ravens are better and have done it for longer. It's a great offense against a great defense, which I expect will make for entertaining television.

However, I think this game will be decided on the other side. The fate of this match up lies in who wins the battle between Baltimore's offense and New England's defense. The Pats are banged up, inexperienced, or flat-out old all over the place. The Ravens have been on fire this year, ranking second in the AFC in total offense, and scoring over 30 points per game. These ain't your mama's Ravens, and this game is exactly the stage for them to establish themselves as a conference powerhouse.

And I think they do it. The Patriots are favored, but only because they're playing at home. The Ravens have steamrolled through the first three games, all of which were warm-ups for this challenge. This is the true test of how far Joe Flacco has come since last year's AFC Championship game, and I think the young guy is up to the task. I see plenty of points going up in this one, with the Ravens edging ahead on a late field goal.

Ravens 31
Patriots 28


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