Week 10 Picks

I had a lousy week of picks in Week 9. This week, you should particularly ignore my pick for Blowout, as my last three not only haven't covered (and therefore qualified as blowouts), but my picks lost outright. I've dropped 4 of them in that way on the year. This week I'm out for a little redemption, so forgive me if a couple of these picks seem fairly safe.

Upset Special
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys by 3
What to Watch For:
I still have a hard time believing a team with as much talent as the Packers has been playing so badly lately. I have a similarly hard time believing a team as neurotic as the Cowboys has been playing so well. I think it's time both teams return to form, with the Packers defense and running game finally coming to life to defend their home turf. Charles Woodson will give Tony Romo nightmares.
Prediction:
Packers 27
Cowboys 24

Blowout - DON'T READ IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHO WILL WIN THE GAME!
New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Saints by 13 1/2
What to Watch For:
Since I'm picking the Saints, the Rams will probably win this one outright. But seriously, I tried to pick not the highest spread, while trying to play my pick pretty safe so I finally hit on one of these. The Rams defense has a long way to go to claim legitimacy, especially with their pass rush. Look for Drew Brees to put up college spread-like numbers (think Graham Harrell circa 2008). I love Spags, but the Rams just can't compete with this caliber of team.
Prediction:
Saints 37
Rams 10

Most Interesting Game
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers by 7
What to Watch For:
The Bengals finally beat the Steelers earlier this year. Let's see them do it again, this time in Pittsburgh and against Troy Polamalu. Cincy has been great this year on both sides of the ball, whereas the Steelers have righted the ship and are playing very good football. I think this will be a tough game, with 2 very good defenses making life very hard for 2 elite quarterbacks. However, Pittsburgh is a very tough place to be the visiting team, so I expect the Steelers to win and cover.
Prediction:
Steelers 24
Bengals 17

Marquee Game
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts by 1 1/2
What to Watch For:
Touted as the Ali/Frazier of its generation (which, since QBs aren't on the field directly playing against each other, it isn't), this game should be an offensive explosion. The Patriots defense has been good but not great this year, and has yet to really hit a good rhythm. The Colts D is basically the ICU, with key players injured all over the place. The two best quarterbacks of their era will have a field day against defensive units that are simply no match for their arms or receivers. Seriously, what Patriots linebacker not named Jerod Mayo is going to cover Dallas Clark? I expect the Colts to win a tough one on their fast home track, with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis using that extra speed to disrupt Brady's shaky O-line.
Prediction:
Colts 34
Patriots 28

Record:
Last Week: 1-3 straight up and against the spread
Overall: 24-11 straight up, 20-15 against the spread

~Freeze

Week 9 Picks

I liked the format of last week's picks, so I'll give them another shot. Let me have it in the comments if you prefer the more detailed analysis.

Upset Special
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks by 10
What to Watch For:
Searching for a legitimate (spread over 3) Upset, I'm going back to my faithful Lions. They came through for me against Washington, and I think they might catch a struggling Seahawks team sleeping. Seattle can't run the ball, and the defense is banged up. Detroit's offense, with its key pieces back together, should scrap together enough points for a difficult road win.
Prediction:
Lions 17
Seahawks 14

Blowout
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Packers by 9 1/2
What to Watch For:
I've sucked at these lately, though they should be lay-ups. I think the Pack rebound powerfully after a tough loss to the Vikings and take advantage of a weak Bucs squad. Green Bay's attacking defense should be trouble for rookie QB Josh Freeman, and Tampa's D is just a mess. Aaron Rodgers and his stable of solid receivers should put together a very nice win here.
Prediction:
Packers 34
Bucs 14

Most Interesting Game
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears by 3
What to Watch For:
Arizona has bounced back from a rough start to look like the class of the NFC West again, while Chicago has fallen back to Earth after a few good performances and high hopes. I'm curious how Chicago's once-feared defense will square up against the Cards aerial assault. Plus, a couple of high-INT gunslingers like Cutler and Warner should put on a pretty good show. Plus, where's Matt Forte been this year? And can he break out against Arizona's suddenly dominant run defense? I don't think this is the week, dude.
Prediction:
Cardinals 27
Bears 21

Marquee Game
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles by 3
What to Watch For:
I'm watching the Eagles' opportunistic, pressure-heavy defense against an unpredictable, mistake-prone Tony Romo. Dallas hasn't been as awesome on the ground this year, and will be forced to throw into the belly of that beast. McNabb has really come on strong lately, and the Eagles in general have been rolling since dropping a turd against the Raiders. I think they continue that dominance at home in prime time.
Prediction:
Eagles 34
Cowboys 21

Record:
Last Week: 3-1 Straight Up, 3-1 Against the Spread (stupid Blowout pick. What do I know?)
Overall: 23-8 Straight Up, 19-12 Against the Spread

~Freeze

Feature: If They Played in the NFL

After the 2008 Summer Olympics, there was a lot of talk on NFL websites and message boards about one guy, and whether or not he could (or actually would) play football professionally. Of course, you know that man to be:

Usain Bolt
Olympic Sprinter (Jamaica)
6'5" 207 lbs

Position: Wide Receiver

If you're an offensive coordinator and you have a guy who's six-five and runs a 40-yard dash in, like, 4 seconds flat, what do you do with him? Line him up wide, tell him to run past the defense, and put the ball just above him and let him jump for it. Typically, track guys don't do well in the NFL, as they usually don't run good routes, and occasionally have trouble catching the ball (especially in traffic).

However, there hasn't been someone as ridiculously fast as Usain Bolt, well, ever. "Bullet" Bob Hayes, of the Cowboys of the 70's, is about the closest that comes to mind. Hayes was an Olympic track star, and coincidentally, positively destructive as an NFL receiver. There was simply no one that could cover him. The biggest difference between Bolt and Hayes, though, is size. Can you imagine the uproar if, say, Plaxico Burress had run a 4.1 40yd dash at his combine? There would be riots if a guy both that big and that fast was on a football field.

I can't really vouch much for Bolt's route running, but I don't think it would matter. He would need to know, like, 2 routes, and he would be crazy productive. Right at the snap, send him on "Go" routes or deep posts, let him just run, and put the ball near him. Game over. His hands are a question mark. However, he has run relays competitively, and that requires good hand strength and dexterity for baton passing, so I think he'd be okay.

Think Randy Moss is a record-setter? Forget it. Bolt is 3 inches taller than Jerry Rice, and a good amount faster. Rice had the best hands and ran the best routes in history, but I think Bolt's physical tools would put him at a Pro Bowl level instantly. The Cowboys would love a guy like him, as Jerry Jones loves high profile, fast players, and Romo has a strong enough arm to deliver the ball downfield. Imagine Bolt on the Pats. I won't even finish that thought...too scary. Really, though, his best fit I think is on either the Bears or Vikings. Both teams could use a big receiver to stretch the field. Jay Cutler would wet his pants at the thought of a 6'5" target who's faster than Devin Hester. Brett Favre to Usain Bolt? Yes.

How 'bout it? Any other suggestions?

~Freeze

Week 8 Picks

Week 8 already! Geez, this season is flying. So because I ran out of time this week (totally my bad), I'm gonna just shoot out my Week 8 picks rapid fire, with one deep thought on each game.

Upset Special
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals by 10
What to Watch For:
Look for DeAngelo Williams to get a lot of carries, as John Fox likes his teams to run the ball frequently and effectively. I don't know how Carolina will handle the Cards' receivers, but I just think it's time for the Panthers to put their foot down and right the ship. They're too good a team to keep sliding.
Prediction:
Panthers 27
Cardinals 21

Blowout
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans by 3
What to Watch For:
Two words: Vince Young. Jeff Fisher is benching career slouch and alcoholic Kerry Collins for the third overall pick from 2006. Young is an exciting player, but just isn't an NFL passer. Maurice Jones-Drew is an awesome back, and the Jaguars will keep Young down all game.
Prediction:
Jaguars 24
Titans 9

Most Interesting Game
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens by 3
What to Watch For:
It was either this or Falcons @ Saints, and frankly, I'm too mad at the Saints for dismantling the Giants to pick their game. So I'll pick the other watchable game with an unbeaten team. The Broncos have astounded everyone so far, while the Ravens have befuddled. I'm looking for Ray Lewis to have had enough of this sloppy play, whip that group into shape, and finally stop the surprising Denver juggernaut.
Prediction:
Ravens 21
Broncos 17

Marquee Game of the Week
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers by 3
What to Watch For:
Duh. Brett Favre's return to Green Bay as an enemy combatant. Really, though, I don't think Green Bay's defense can handle Adrian Peterson and the Favre-led passing attack. The secondary is pretty good, but the whole unit has proved nothing this year. Aaron Rodgers is a good QB, and will put up points, just not enough.
Prediction:
Vikings 34
Packers 24

Record:
Last Week: 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the spread
Overall: 20-7 straight up, 16-11 against the spread

I'm actually picking 3 underdogs this week, and my one favorite is the Ravens, who have burned me bad this year. Fingers crossed this week!!

~Freeze

Feature: If They Played in the NFL

Again, I'm a little late on this one. Busy week off. Anyway, here's a guy who many might not be familiar with, as his sport isn't real popular in this neck of the woods, but he's a huge superstar in the rest of the world. I found it pretty interesting to try and fit him on an NFL field.

Cristiano Ronaldo
Forward, Real Madrid
6'1" 186 lbs

Position: Cornerback

This Portuguese mega-star is known as one of the best soccer players in the world, and his ball skills are a sight to behold. He's not the wizard that Ronaldinho is, but is much younger and has a ton of upside.

I chose Corner as his position for a variety of reasons. First, straight line speed is a valuable commodity for an NFL corner back, and Ronaldo's 4.34 40-yard-dash time is insane for a player his size. Corner backs over 6 feet tall are fairly rare, so that size/speed combination would cause any NFL scout to soil his pants instantly. He is tall enough at that position to match up against bigger receivers for jump balls, making him effective against the Randy Mosses, Andre Johnsons, and Larry Fitzgerald's of the world.

However, possibly the most prized attributes of corner backs are foot speed and hip fluidity. If you've ever watched Ronaldo play, it's quickly apparent that he excels at both. He has extremely quick feet and can change directions with frightening ability. As for flipping his hips to switch from a back pedal to a full run, again refer to that video. The man is freakishly gifted in his legs, which would be a huge boon covering fast receivers.

Ronaldo's straight-ahead speed would let him run step for step with burners like DeSean Jackson, Randy Moss, or Santana Moss. However, his foot speed and ability to move in traffic would also allow him to play slot receivers with equal effectiveness. Good luck with a 6'1" corner who's faster than you, Wes Welker. Ronaldo's sheer athletic freakishness would make him a brilliant cover corner.

The one are where he may be weak, oddly enough, is ball skills. Being a soccer player, he's used to never using his hands for anything. As a corner back, he would have to make great use of his hands to make plays on the ball all the time. Especially considering that he would be in very tight coverage and perfect position all the time, this would be hugely important. I imagine he would have far more passes-defensed than he would interceptions, so he would be a dominant cover corner, but not rack up the Hall of Fame stat of crazy interceptions. Taking away that little bit, he would probably be almost identical in his play to the great Deion Sanders. Their height, weight, and speed are basically the same, and anyone who watched football in the 90's remembers just how crazy fast Deion was, and how he was always right with a receiver and in position to make a play on the ball.

So where would Ronaldo play (other than Oakland)? I would say New England, not only because Bill Belichick loves great athletes with sports-smarts, but also because of the rest of the division. He would be going against Randy Moss in practice, then playing against big fast guys like TO and Braylon Edwards twice a year. He could also cover the smaller, faster guys in the division like Lee Evans, Ted Ginn, David Clowney, and Davone Bess. Also, the Patriots' corners aren't any good, and Ronaldo would completely change the complexion of that defensive backfield.

Whaddya think? Could a brilliant futbol player translate to a good football player?

~Freeze

Giants v Cardinals Recap

Sorry this one took so long, folks. I don't usually go back and watch tape of games, but this week I had to. I had to really dig in, analyze, and figure out just what went wrong in this game. After watching it once, I was left wondering "Why did the Giants lose?" After some studious analysis, I think I have the answer. As a result of this weird, troubling loss, I'm going to do things a little differently for this recap.

What Went Right

Not much.

Brandon Jacobs
13 carries, 76 yards (5.85 YPC), one TD
Jacobs looked positively dominant this game, despite the fact that the Cards burned the frigging house down to stop him, putting 8 or 9 men in the box every time he took the field. The biggest indication of Jacobs' stellar running was his 12.5 YPC on FIRST DOWN!! The line and Hedgecock blocked well for him, and Jacobs hit his holes with power, making for a few very effective runs. Sadly, he only ran on 4 first downs, and only had 13 carries all game. Not good numbers for a team that is supposedly centered around the run.

Hakeem Nicks
4 catches, 80 yards (20 YPC), 1 TD
Granted, 62 of his 80 yards came on one catch, but that was a great heads-up play by a rookie. Bravo to Nicks for staying in the play on a ball to someone else, keeping his eyes on a tipped ball, then finishing the play in the end zone. He almost looks like a veteran player out there, and is likely to work his way into a starting role opposite Steve Smith by year's end. He also should have drawn a pass interference penalty in the end zone in the 2nd Quarter, when Bryant McFadden was guilty of some blatant face-guarding and jersey grabbing.

Defensive Blitzing
They didn't do it as often as Bill Sheridan boasted (only 16 blitzes on 38 called pass plays), but it was effective when it happened. The blitz, by my count, resulted in 1 interception and 2 sacks (19% called blitzes resulted in impact plays). Makes you wonder why they rushed only 4 men on the other 22 passes. I've always understood that blitzing is like running the ball: the more you do it, the more effective it is late in games. The Giants sustained neither, even though they did both effectively.

Corey Webster
Despite a weak performance against the Saints last week, where Webster wasn't the worst out there, number 23 has been fantastic this year. Larry Fitzgerald, arguably the best receiver in the NFL, was held to 2 catches in the first half by Webster. However, in the second half, Webster was rarely assigned to cover Fitz, and he lit up for another 4 catches for big gains (CC Brooooooooooooown!!!). Nonetheless, for the first half, Corey Webster eliminated Larry Fitzgerald from the game, which is tremendous. I just need to know why Bill Sheridan took him off Fitz in the second half (and ruined the game plan).

Justin Tuck
5 tackles, 1 forced fumble
This is mainly for that fumble Tuck forced in the first quarter, as he had a somewhat quiet game after that. But on that particular play, Tuck shot right by RT Levi Brown and grabbed Tim Hightower in the backfield. Go back and watch the play again, if you're able, and you'll see that Tuck spins Hightower to the ground not by any part of his body, but by the ball, which directly resulted in the fumble. Great play by Tuck, and an extremely smart move. Also, kudos to Tom Coughlin for challenging that play, as it was totally the right call.

What Went Wrong

Game Planning
As mentioned above, I'm extremely disappointed in how Kevin Gilbride got away from the running game this week. The Giants had 23 first downs (16 earned), and ran the ball only 9 times on those first downs, only 4 of which were by Brandon Jacobs. This guy is viewed league-wide as the tone-setter for the NYG offense, and only ran it on 25% of the Giants' first downs?! Also, on plays where the Giants needed 3 yards or less, they called pass plays on 5 of them, even though Jacobs converted a 4th and 1 in a big way in the fourth quarter. A 37/25 Pass-to-Run ratio is unacceptable for this team. I get that they want to take advantage of the speed of the receivers, but you run to set up the pass. There was no play action in this game, and Arizona blitzed like crazy as we didn't use run plays to slow them down. The Giants started this game with 3 straight pass plays, basically telling the Cardinals "We're not even gonna try to run it on you." What happened to asserting your dominance on the ground and dictating the pace of the game?!

CC Brown
Once again, CC (Can't Cover) Brown had a rough day. I kept track of how many plays he messed up by either missing tackles, getting there late, or blowing coverage, and I counted 6 big ones. In the NBA, this is called being "posterized," as in, "You're the guy getting stiff-armed on the Beanie Wells poster," or "you're the guy way in the background on that Anquan Boldin catch when you should have been covering him." Brown was nowhere near the screen pass to Tim Hightower that set up the Cardinals first touchdown, and a review of the tape reveals that covering Hightower was Brown's responsibility on that play. Why wasn't he withing 15 yards of the receiver, then? Bad safety play could completely sabotage a good team this season.

Eli Manning
Eli's been really good this year, so I'll go easy on him. But he wasn't throwing to open receivers on any of his interceptions. I'll give him a pass on the second one, as it was tipped at the line by a 6'8" defensive lineman, but the other 2 were bad decisions. This is partially the fault of Gilbride, who should have put the ball in the hands of Brandon Jacobs, not Eli Manning, to set the tone for this game. Either way, Eli needs to play better against good teams to take this team anywhere. The fact that the Giants suck against 3-4 defenses is immaterial, as they need to learn to beat those teams.

Notes

The refs had another rough game this week. Mostly, Alberto Riveron's crew called a decent game, but there were some flagrant fouls that were not called against the Cardinals. First, I have to look at the obvious pass interference on Bryant McFadden on Hakeem Nicks in the end zone. McFadden was guilty of face-guarding (never turning to play the ball), and even if they don't call that, he had Nicks wrapped up before the ball got there, so they could have called him twice. Second, and most egregious, was the helmet-to-helmet hit put on Kevin Boss by Antrel Rolle. It was obvious in live action, and replay made it clear. With the league's stance on player safety, how do they not call that by default, then pick up the flag if they're wrong?! Boss is lucky to not have a concussion, and those extra 15 penalty yards would have completely changed the 4th quarter as the Giants attempted their come back. And finally, on the play where Ahmad Bradshaw was called for punching Darnell Dockett, Dockett needs to be penalized for defensive delay of game, as he layed on top of Bradshaw and wouldn't let him get up, killing valuable comeback time.

Speaking of comebacks, if Mario Manningham catches that pass in the second half for an easy touchdown, this is a totally different game. When Eli throws a beauty right into his hands at the goal line when he's beaten his coverage, he's got to pull that in. According to the NBC play by play, that's Manningham's 7th drop of a catchable pass this year, in only 7 games. He's got to get that sorted out, or he won't be much use late in the year.

Again, sorry for the lateness, but I had to study this one. The usual Wednesday feature will be up this afternoon, and picks go up tomorrow. Here's hoping the Giants can rebound against the Eagles on Sunday!

~Freeze

Week 7 Pick: Marquee Game

Giants/Cardinals again? Nope, I can't rightly call that the Week 7 Marquee Game. Bears/Bengals is nice, as is Eagles/Redskins, but I felt compelled to choose:

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under: 45 1/2
Line: Steelers by 5 1/2

My Thoughts:
Come on, you have to agree that this is the Marquee Game! Last year's Super Bowl winners against the off-season's biggest story?! Yeah! Great run defense against the league's best runner? Yessir! Troy Polamalu versus Brett Favre? Oh yeah!

Sorry for that little outburst, but this game really does get me all excited. The Vikings have gotten off to a not-entirely-unexpected 6-0 start, while Pittsburgh after struggling early, sits tied for their division lead at 4-2. Who doesn't like to see two very good teams play?

As good as both offenses have been thus far, this game will be decided on defense. Brett Favre may have gotten about 6 years younger for the Vikings, but Heinz Field is as hostile an environment to play as there is, and that Steelers defense is the real deal. Sorry Brett, but you're going to feel 40 after this one. The Steelers have stopped the run extremely well all season, and Polamalu's return only makes that unit better. Adrian Peterson is an incredible talent, but he has been proven to struggle against true top-shelf defenses, which Pittsburgh is. Meanwhile, Ike Taylor, William Gay, and Deshea Townsend have the experience and ability to hang with any of the Vikings' receivers. The x-factor is Polamalu, who's hair and freakish playmaking will be a nightmare for Old Man Favre. I expect ol' Troy to get at least one pick in this game, maybe even for a touchdown. And just for completeness, find me a better group of linebackers than those on the Steelers. Try it!

Now that I've trumped up the Steelers D, it's time to give Minnesota's defense the respect they've earned. Between the Williams Wall, Jared Allen, a very underrated and athletic linebacker group, and a decent secondary, the Vikings have been awesome on defense for years, and 2009 is no different. Kiss Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall goodbye, as Pat and Kevin Williams will literally eat them up on inside runs. The only real problem I see is the injury to Antoine Winfield, the Vikings best cornerback. If he can't go (and he's listed as doubtful), Ben Roethlisberger will be attacking Cedric Griffin and Karl Paymah without remorse. Between Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and rookie Mike Wallace, someone will be open. Pittsburgh's passing game has been a revelation the last two years, and I really think the Winfield injury makes the difference in this one.

While it won't be a big, high-scoring shootout, this should be a fun game to watch for those who like good defense and occasional big passing plays. I think home field advantage and an unfortunate Minnesota injury tip this one in favor of the Steelers laying 5 1/2, but Minnesota should keep it close enough to cover.

Prediction:
Steelers 21
Vikings 20

~Freeze

Week 7 Pick: Most Interesting Game

Honestly, I'm most interested in Giants/Cardinals to see how my Giants bounce back off a miserable loss. However, I have a policy of not picking Giants games unless I absolutely have to, which I don't, because I'm also extremely interested in:

San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans

Over/Under: 44
Line: Texans by 3

My Thoughts:
Why, you ask, is this such an interesting game? First, the Niners have been one of the bigger surprises of the season, riding a 3-2 start (2-0 in their division) to a tie for the lead in the NFC West. Second, this game marks the debut of mercurial wide receiver Michael Crabtree for the 49ers, and it will be more than interesting to see what the allegedly talented rookie brings to the table after missing, well, everything this off-season. Finally, I'm interested to see which Texans team shows up, the offensive explosion, or the mistake-plagued sloppy group that loses stupid games.

For the Niners, their offense this season has revolved entirely around the running game. Lucky for them, the Texans have allowed over 120 yards per game on the ground, and haven't seen a back like Frank Gore yet this year. Gore's outstanding size/speed combination will be awful for Houston's sloppy run defense. And to rest him, San Fran will bring in 6'0", 210 lb Glen Coffee to continue the merciless pounding. Shaun Hill has only thrown 144 times this year (compared to Matt Schaub's 219), and will only do so if absolutely necessary. The best hope the Niners have is to keep the game close so Houston tries to run, allowing their own, more effective, running game to control the clock and the score. Since I mentioned Crabtree, I don't expect much out of him this game. I'll guess maybe 2 or 3 catches, 20-30 yards, no touchdowns. Give the kid some time.

On the other side, Houston's insane passing attack seems to have hit its stride. The battle between Nate Clements and Andre Johnson should be a great one, as both players are among the best at their positions. If you have Steve Slaton on your fantasy team, sit him this week, because Patrick Willis and that Niners defense will give him nowhere to run. But the fact remains, Matt Schaub is on a hot streak, shredding decent defenses with a great group of pass-catchers that includes Johnson, Owen Daniels, Kevin Walters, and Jacoby Jones. I have to wonder if San Francisco can match that kind of depth on defense.

I expect this to be a pretty good game, and fun to watch. In the end though, the better, more explosive offense wins this one by a touchdown, covering that tricky 3 point spread.

Prediction:
Texans 27
49ers 21

~Freeze

Week 7 Pick: Upset

Despite there being a couple of candidates for Upset Specials this week (anyone think the Raiders can do it again?), the real Upset of the Week was just too dang easy, and it is:

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Over/Under: 47 1/2
Line: Cowboys by 4

My Thoughts:
No way. No WAY the Cowboys deserve to be favored against the Falcons! I don't care if they're at home (referred to in some places as the North Texas Football Cathedral, here as the "Palace in Dallas"), the Falcons have more talent, are better coached, run by a sane owner, and are simply the better team.

Ever since Dallas lost to the Giants in Week 2, things seem to have come apart for them. They lost to Denver (who is better than I thought, but not as good as their record indicates) and would have lost to Kansas City but for the late-game heroics of Miles Austin. I wouldn't expect to see Austin do something like that again (ever, but definitely this season), especially against a Falcons secondary that is a lot better than KC's. Chevis Jackson and Chris Houston are some of my favorite corners not named Webster or Asomugha, and both have more than enough speed to keep up with Roy Williams (probably, rib injury) and Austin. Mike Peterson brings a ton of leadership and credibility to the Falcons' LB corps, and they will more than handle and injured Marion Barber, an injury prone Felix Jones, and a good-not-great Tashard Choice. The Cowboys will be made one dimensional, and OC Jason Garrett will want to show his offense can outgun the Falcons playmakers. Sorry, Jay, they can't.

Atlanta's offense has the makings of an elite ball-moving, point-scoring group on par with the Saints, Colts, and Patriots. They've shown that they can destroy good teams (San Fran Week 5), and find ways to win against tough teams (Chicago, Week 6). Dallas' defense qualifies as neither. Demarcus Ware notwithstanding, there is no one on the Cowboys' defense that should intimidate the dynamic Falcons. If Sam Baker can hold up in pass protection, Matt Ryan will efficiently pick apart the overconfident Cowboys. Expect Tony Gonzalez to find a ton of openings in the middle of the field against Dallas' coverage-challenged linebackers and safeties. Roddy White is a bona fide star, and should make life very difficult for Terrence Newman, who doesn't have the size to win that match-up often.

In the end, I just think the Falcons' maturity and talent will be too much for the overrated, easily rattled Cowboys. The Falcons won't just cover, they'll win outright. Give me Atlanta getting 4 on the road for a solid win.

Prediction:
Falcons 30
Cowboys 24

~Freeze

Week 7 Pick: Blowout

There are a few lopsided games this week with huge spreads, namely Pats/Bucs, or Packers/Browns, but there's one in particular I can see being completely out of control, and that is:

Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams

Over/Under: 44 1/2
Line: Colts by 13

My Thoughts:
All the Colts need to do in this one is win by 2 touchdowns. Peyton Manning and company should have very little trouble in that regard against a badly struggling Rams team. St. Louis has had a tough time generating pressure on defense, and the Colts' offensive line is very good, with running backs who are very good at blitz pickup. Steve Spagnuolo loves to blitz, but he simply doesn't have the players to do it effectively in St. Louis.

The Rams' secondary is suspect at best, with their only decent player being Safety OJ Atogwe. They simply do not have the cornerbacks to cover the Colts' receivers, especially a dynamic deep threat like Reggie Wayne. If Indy shows some 3 or 4 receiver sets, the Rams are done, plain and simple. The Colts' 4th best receiver (we'll call him Pierre Garcon) is better than the Rams' best corner (Ron Bartell? Who?), so there will be match-up problems all over the field. That's even without looking at Dallas Clark running in the flat, covered by James Laurinaitis (because Paris Lenon can't cover anyone). Even if St. Louis is able to manage some offense, which I think they will, the Colts' offense will splatter the Rams' D all over the walls of the Edward Jones Dome.

On the other side of the ball, I will give a little credit to the St. Louis offensive line. There is talent there, especially with Center Jason Brown emigrating from the Ravens this Spring. It's a nasty, run-oriented line that should look to control the tempo of this game on the ground. The Rams will give Indy's small defensive line and linebackers a heavy dose of Stephen Jackson (who I think has loads of ability), and try to keep Peyton off the field. Though as we saw with the Miami game, Manning doesn't need a lot of time to shred your defense. I think where the Rams' plan falls apart is when the Colts jump to a 17 point lead, and Stephen Jackson is relegated to just pass protection and short screens. Outside of Donnie Avery, St. Louis doesn't have an NFL receiver on their roster, and Marc Bulger is simply finished as a quality QB. The Rams will be drafting corners, receivers, and a franchise QB in April, and all those areas will hurt them this game.

Prediction:
Colts 41
Rams 17

Record:
Last Week: 3-1 straight up (stupid Eagles...), 3-1 against the spread (STUPID RAIDERS!!!)
Overall: 17-6 straight up, 14-9 against the spread

~Freeze

Wednesday (Oops) Feature: If They Played in the NFL

Sorry for the late post. Weird week. Anyway, I'll be playing catch-up for a day or two here to get this thing straight. This week, I'll focus on the big sports business of the moment, and hit up someone who's currently having a big week in another sport:

Alex Rodriguez
3B, New York Yankees
6'3", 228 lbs

Position: Wide Receiver

Love him or hate him, call him a ton of insulting nick-names (A-Roid or A-Fraud are personal favorites), no one can deny A-Rod's freakish athleticism. His height/weight combination are almost ideal for an NFL wide receiver, though I've heard he was heavily recruited as a quarterback when he was in high school.

What makes me lean toward receiver with Rodriguez is his speed, something which is less of an asset as a QB, and his intangibles, which do not lend themselves to leadership (putting it nicely). While not necessarily known as a speed guy or base-stealer, A-Rod is a more than capable base runner with plenty of speed to be a factor in a running game. He is a well-known work out warrior, and spends a lot of time honing his craft. Imagine if he spent that kind of time working on his route running, or catching passes from a Jugs Machine. Freak, right?

It's hard to project a power-hitting baseball player like A-Rod into the NFL because, well, power-hitting doesn't really have a parallel in football. The best I can do with that is say that his upper-body strength would probably help his pass-catching, as strong arms and hands make for sure catches and few fumbles. With that kind of muscle mass, he would be very effective going over the middle and taking some big hits. Then again, no one ever accused A-Rod of being tough or gritty.

The knock on A-Rod, and the thing that just screams "NFL Wide Receiver," is his off-the-field attitude. He's a prototypical diva, a party boy, and can't stand to not be in the spotlight. The good thing is that he keeps his antics off the playing field, and only gets into media trouble after game time. So when imagining Alex Rodriguez as a receiver, I picture the playing ability and style of Larry Fitzgerald, with the attitude of Randy Moss. I can easily see A-Rod dogging it when plays don't come his way, half-heartedly blocking on runs, but making great SportsCenter catches.

Alex Rodriguez has often had the label of "choker," as he has typically performed not badly, but miserably in big spots and big games. However, anyone paying attention to this year's ALCS has seen A-Rod shed that label in a big way, playing light's out at big moments. So taking into account his current play, I can't worry about him in the playoffs or Super Bowl.

Just looking at A-Rod's athleticism, he of course seems like a good fit for Al Davis and the Raiders. But when I think of teams that both have a need and have a system that he'd fit in, I look at a team like the Rams or Redskins. Both run a West Coast offense, which focuses on quick reads and timing. A guy like A-Rod would get open fast (quick read), and would run tight routes to aid his quarterback (timing). The Rams need him worse, and Marc Bulger would do just about anything for a receiver with that size and ability.

Picks will be up a day late; I should have them posted tomorrow. I've made them, but they take a while to type. Sorry!

~Freeze

Giants v Saints Recap

Let's face it, the Giants weren't going to win every game this year. I just wish this one, which I called in my picks, wasn't so disgraceful. I think the Giants can learn a lot from this game, and use it to build on and make a good run in the latter stages of the season. For now, though, a look back at a truly hideous performance by Big Blue.

Highlights

Sean Payton/Drew Brees

I'm not sure which guy to credit, and they probably both deserve it, but the Saints had the absolute perfect game plan for the Giants. CC Brown had proved himself a liability in coverage, and they used their spread offense perfectly to abuse both Brown and nickel back Kevin Dockery all day. They created match up nightmares in the LB corps against Jeremy Shockey and Lance Moore, while isolating Aaron Rouse and CC Brown on big receivers on deep routes. The Giants don't have a lot of weaknesses, but the Saints offense used their bye-week perfectly, and absolutely killed us in our Achilles heel.

New Orleans' Offensive Line
Granted, they frequently used a 6th offensive lineman and ran play-action out of that running formation, but they protected Drew Brees perfectly. This goes into the game-planning mentioned above, but that max-protect into the spread style worked great against the Giants' vaunted pass rush. I doubt Brees even had to wash his jersey after this game, as New York barely laid a finger on him. Part of this falls on Bill Sheridan, who I'll address in the Lowlights, but I have to credit the Saints O-line for a job well done.

Gregg Williams
New Orleans' new Defensive Coordinator has always been good, but he was absolutely on fire yesterday. As soon as the Saints were playing with the lead, he brought pressure from everywhere, as the Giants were forced to throw (which partially falls on Kevin Gilbride, who I'll address in the Lowlights) constantly. Williams used his personnel to perfection, confusing the Giants' protections and simply outplaying New York's offense. Again, they were helped by the Giants' shoddy game plan, but I have to credit a job well done.

Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw
Despite an otherwise putrid performance by pretty much the entire team, hidden in this awful loss was the fact that the Giants actually ran the ball pretty well. Jacobs (4.7 YPC) and Bradshaw (4.8 YPC) were actually fairly effective against the Saints defense. They don't play defense, though, and it's not their fault the Giants gave up on the run game from their first offensive snap.

Lowlights

Offensive Coordinator Kevin Gilbride
Gilbride obviously forgot how to game plan for an offensive juggernaut in the last 1.5 years since taking down the '07 Patriots. Everyone on Earth knew the plan for the Saints should have been "Control the clock, control the tempo, run early and often to keep Drew Brees off the field." So on the Giants first possession, they throw the ball the first 3 snaps, break off a great 7 yard run on second down, then throw deep on 3rd and 3. I've been on Gilbride since before he got the OC job, and I still hate him. He game plans like crap, goes for the deep ball at horrible times, and gives up on the run way too easily. He obviously got spooked by the Saints ability to score, and got baited into an ill-fated shootout. He should have shown more faith in his runners, who played well, and stuck with playing NYG football. 17 called runs to 36 called passes, even in a blowout, is not how this team will win games going forward.

Defensive Coordinator Bill Sheridan
I'll admit, even I was drinking Sheridan's Kool-Aid after some dominant defensive performances, and had failed to notice the lack of blitzing and extra pressure he promised to increase this offseason. Against a Saints team you knew was going to come out slinging it, Sheridan insisted on only rushing his front 4 most of the game. My brother made the perfect observation at half-time, noting that "they may as well blitz the linebackers, because they're not helping at all in coverage." And he's absolutely right. While we couldn't afford to blitz safeties (though the way CC Brown played, he may as well have not been in coverage), the linebackers should have been used more to blitz the A-gaps (between center and guard). Umenyiora and Tuck were getting up field well, but the lack of push up the middle let Brees get very comfortable in the pocket. A few LB blitzes up the gut may have slowed them down a little, and like my brother said, it's not like they were covering anybody. Sheridan needed to take more chances in this game, and seemed to scare himself into dangerously conservative play-calling, something Spags never would have allowed.

Safety CC Brown
To put it mildly, Brown got beat like a drum on Sunday. It seems like every big catch or touchdown, you saw CC Brown waving harmlessly at a ball that landed squarely in a receivers hands. That, or he was making up ground a couple seconds to late to make tackles on underneath routes he should have seen coming a mile away. I don't think anyone expected this big a drop off in coverage ability from the Safety position after Kenny Phillips went out for the year. The Giants can't live with that kind of performance, as you know every big offensive team the Giants play the rest of the year (and there are a lot) took note of that match up problem. More to come in the Notes.

Osi Umenyiora
I know he's still getting back to form after last year's knee surgery, but he was playing a backup left tackle on Sunday. Osi got credit for 3 total tackles, but he needs to destroy Jermon Bushrod in that game, and was turned into a non-factor in the pass rush. I don't know if he's still thinking about his injury, or if he's still rounding into shape, but he needs to step up in a big way if this team is going anywhere in the post-season.

Notes

First, I need to start with something that's been bugging me for a few weeks, and that is how badly the Giants have botched their response to Aaron Ross' hamstring injury. When he re-injured it, and apparently pretty badly, at the end of training camp, he should have immediately gone on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list, which would sideline him for 6 weeks, and more importantly open up A ROSTER SPOT for a mid-level veteran CB who could have helped them tremendously. Rod Hood was available until about a week ago, and there are any number of decent-but-not-great vets to be had. They would only need to lease one for the 6 weeks Ross was on PUP, and our secondary wouldn't have been as badly exposed against the Saints. I don't care how deep a team is, what quality their backups, being down a starting corner against a great passing team will always hurt you.

Second, the Safety position clearly needs to be addressed. With games against Arizona, Philly, San Diego, Minnesota, and other quality passing teams, we can't stand pat with CC Brown covering deep on the field. Either Michael Johnson, who is athletic enough to cover a bit, needs to move into coverage and Brown goes into the box, or the Giants need to swing a trade before tomorrow's deadline. My proposal, which is an easy one, is this:
CC Brown and a 4th round pick to the Rams for OJ Atogwe. This is beautiful for a few reasons. First, Atogwe is a very good coverage Safety, and Brown clearly isn't. Second, he's the Rams' Franchise player, so he's only under contract through the end of the year. If Kenny Phillips looks like he'll be back next year without problems, the Giants can let OJ walk at the end of the year, and heck, the Rams could re-sign him if they want. If he plays well, they can keep him as insurance in case Phillips is slow in his recovery. Besides, the Rams stink this year, and they would probably be happy to unload a guy they're likely to lose anyway in exchange for a pick or two and a player. It also helps that the Rams coach is Steve Spagnuolo, who might not object to doing business with the team that got him is current job.

Whether it's Atogwe, a free agent, or my grandmother, the Giants need to address the lack of coverage ability in their Safeties. If Johnson is the only one who can do it, then he needs to be that guy. They can't go the rest of the year hoping that CC Brown and Aaron Rouse learn to do something neither one has ever been particularly good at.

Let me know what you think!

~Freeze