Thursday, October 15, 2009

Week 6 Pick: Upset

On the menu for Week 6, there aren't a whole lot of games that seem ripe for an upset. Maybe Ravens/Vikings, but the low line of 3 for Minnesota at home doesn't work for me. Bears/Falcons maybe, but again, that's a low line (3 1/2) to call an upset. So in the name of being bold, after a miserable week of picks for Week 5, I'm throwing caution to the wind with:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins

Over/Under: 37
Line: Redskins by 6 1/2

My Thoughts:
Interesting fact about this game: if you count the 0-0 Giants in Week 1, the Redskins have opened the season against 6 teams who were all winless at the time. That's an NFL first. Against those teams, they are 2-3 thus far, with the sixth game on Sunday. Sorry Daniel Snyder, but your crappy team is destined to be 2-4 against the NFL's winless group.

Before I beat down the Redskins, let me address the Kansas City Chiefs. First, they have a much classier name that is way less insulting to Native Americans, so I'll pick them over the Redskins based solely on that. Second, I know they're 0-5, but this team is better than their record. Matt Cassel can play, Dwayne Bowe is a pretty good receiver, I think Todd Haley is a pretty good coach, and the defense will come around. The real tipping point for this game is the offense. They showed against a very good Giants D that they can move the ball, and even score a couple of points. This Washington defense isn't as talented or well-coached as the Giants, and the Chiefs are getting better.

KC's defense isn't a particularly good unit, but there is some ability there. Tyson Jackson, while not a top-flight pass rusher, is a pretty good run stopper at defensive end. At linebacker, Corey Mays and Tamba Hali are quietly playing pretty well. And despite a few unimpressive performances so far, I like their secondary, with Flowers and Carr. What gives them an edge this week is that they get to sharpen their game against a basically inept Washington offense. Jason Campbell simply isn't that good, the offensive line isn't helping either him or Clinton Portis, and the receivers have disappointed. Chris Cooley is really the only great player on that offense, and he's being wasted in a West Coast attack with the wrong quarterback.

I believe that Brandons Carr and Flowers can hold their own against Santana Moss and Antwan Randle-El, allowing Clancy Pendergast's defense to bring some extra pressure on a banged-up and just-not-that-good Redskins offensive line. Kansas City's offense will be able to score just enough points to win this game, and the defense will do what they have to to keep Washington about where they belong. Jim Zorn's seat gets even hotter as he grants yet another winless team with their first victory on the year.

Chiefs 21
Redskins 17

My Record:
Last Week - 1-3 Straight Up, 0-4 Against the Spread
Overall - 15-4 Straight Up, 11-8 Against the Spread
If not for the incredible amount of spunk from the Bengals and Lions, that record looks a lot better. I'm really going for it on the picks this week, and I'm hoping for a good rebound from last week's embarrassment.


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